Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Energised Inflation Is Not Controlled

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Differential surprises in the Nov-22 PMI surveys still reinforced the global trend towards falling activity. The US drop crystallised the convergence risk we flagged last month.</li>
<li>Levels are consistent with broad Q4 activity declines, which would confirm a technical recession in the UK. Unemployment lags but is showing some signs of deterioration.</li>
<li>Although there is arguably enough recessionary evidence for tightening to slow slightly in December, unemployment will need to have definitively turned for hikes to end.</li>
</ul>


Differential surprises in the Nov-22 PMI surveys still reinforced the global trend towards falling activity. The US drop crystallised the convergence risk we flagged last month.
Levels are consistent with broad Q4 activity declines, which would confirm a technical recession in the UK. Unemployment lags but is showing some signs of deterioration.
Although there is arguably enough recessionary evidence for tightening to slow slightly in December, unemployment will need to have definitively turned for hikes to end.


PMI Consolidation Behind Contractions