Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Thoughts on Amazon –What Does Its Valuation Tells Us?

Netflix & Amazon Expand in Korea – Not a Coincidence

Okja: The Fight Between Netflix Vs. CJ CGV

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We have long been sceptics about Uber and Lyft’s assertions that operating leverage would allow the companies to become profitable. After the very public failure of WeWork’s attempted IPO, the stocks have actually rallied, perhaps driven by public proclamations of a focus on the path to profitability (not just by ride hailers but by the many companies attempting to “disrupt” the notion that profits are actually a good thing). Uber is now aiming to become profitable on their adjusted EBITDA metric.</p><p>Two key questions now appear to be whether Uber’s pull-forward of the timeline to turn profitable is an indication of better underlying profitability for Uber than for Lyft, and whether Uber’s profit target is realistic. Our analysis of the data suggests the answers are respectively maybe, and not very. Details below.</p>

We have long been sceptics about Uber and Lyft’s assertions that operating leverage would allow the companies to become profitable. After the very public failure of WeWork’s attempted IPO, the stocks have actually rallied, perhaps driven by public proclamations of a focus on the path to profitability (not just by ride hailers but by the many companies attempting to “disrupt” the notion that profits are actually a good thing). Uber is now aiming to become profitable on their adjusted EBITDA metric.Two key questions now appear to be whether Uber’s pull-forward of the timeline to turn profitable is an indication of better underlying profitability for Uber than for Lyft, and whether Uber’s profit target is realistic. Our analysis of the data suggests the answers are respectively maybe, and not very. Details below.

Uber and Lyft – So About That Wonderful New Path to Profitability

Uber Technologies

Uber and Lyft – So About That Wonderful New Path to Profitability