Nothing Can Trump Vietnam: Assessing the TPP and Other Geopolitical Risks/Opportunities

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Macroeconomics

<p>The baseline outlook for the global economy has stabilised since President Trump’s election, with world GDP growth likely to increase from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.4% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. This baseline assumes a modest impact of President Trump’s policies on the global economy, taking into account his more moderate tone on trade in recent speeches and comments, together with the growing strength of members of his inner circle with more mainstream views. The first meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping in early April also went more smoothly than expected, making a trade war between the two countries less likely.</p>

The baseline outlook for the global economy has stabilised since President Trump’s election, with world GDP growth likely to increase from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.4% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. This baseline assumes a modest impact of President Trump’s policies on the global economy, taking into account his more moderate tone on trade in recent speeches and comments, together with the growing strength of members of his inner circle with more mainstream views. The first meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping in early April also went more smoothly than expected, making a trade war between the two countries less likely.

Trump Policy Risks: A Worst-Case Adverse Scenario