Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 1: CEO Out, Activists up the Game

Smartkarma Flash Webinar | Toshiba - Change Is Afoot

How Much of Toshiba Is Owned By "Activists"?

TOPIX Upweights: Big April Basket 2021 Pre-Event Is a WIN! Now the Event-Leg!

Gaming Out a CVC Bid for Toshiba - The Right Noises, The Wrong Price, and Toast

Toshiba - The CEO Gets His MBO Bidder and Toshiba Will Get Interestinger

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

That famous phrase is not internally contradictory. It announces the death of the late monarch, and announces the ascension of the new monarch to replace him. A flurry of articles late last night Japan time - some of them referenced in a few discussion points posted to the most recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gaming-out-a-cvc-bid-for-toshiba-the-right-noises-the-wrong-price-and-toast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50229" rel="noopener">Gaming Out a CVC Bid for Toshiba - The Right Noises, The Wrong Price, and Toast</a> and others said that Kurumatani-san was going to be dismissed, or resign, at an extraordinary board meeting to be held on the 14th of April. The various articles were more or less revealing depending on how much the masthead represents Japan as Japan Inc would have itself represented. Articles from institutions with a more neutral/critical eye were more forthcoming about the turmoil under the surface. The phrases from the former were on the order of "it became inevitable that Kurumatani-san would have to resign." The FT <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65a3b3b0-c68e-4312-a29b-d0b90d8cf011?accessToken=zwAAAXjMEoyYkc9lo7Owxo5DEtOim9C5DYzwEQ.MEYCIQC4LeQUZlpxHrSPbzJTDZ61ShI44C3oiJbgokufB8UoBwIhANeoOL0qqwn55uqeZ8S1dfICiwDimLC64-ywWZ507TTe&amp;sharetype=gift?token=5fa2425a-19d9-4c96-b0f6-a2318b638d3b" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggested</a> one board member would put forth a motion to dismiss him after the CVC approach last week threw senior management into "civil war."Later versions suggested Kurumatani-san would himself resign at the beginning of a meeting, which would forestall an effort to boot him (The King is Dead). Toshiba's exchange release this morning in response to press coverage all but confirms it.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/472/original/Screenshot+2021-04-14+at+9.22.08+AM.png?1618363354" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200472"></figure></section>If Kurumatani-san is going to fall on his sword because of the CVC conflict (and the idea that by getting CVC to bid to distract from the other things going on, he was somehow entrenching himself in ways not befitting Toshiba adherence to the spirit of the Corporate Governance Code), one would expect Fujimori-san may resign as well. All the stories suggest the current Chairman and former CEO Tsunakawa-san would take the reins (Long Live the King!) but despite Tsunakawa-san being on friendlier terms with some of the activists, the Board needs to find someone else. I expect there would be shareholder pressure to have that person come from without, but Toshiba is a sensitive asset and there could be considerable pressure to have that person come from within, or if from without, from within the Keidanren. I think investors need to prepare themselves for the possibility that the replacement for Tsunakawa-san may not be the CEO Toshiba needs either, but that may be jumping the gun.The result is not dissimilar to what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> and I had suggested was inevitable, but the speed of the unwind may catch people by surprise. I expect that the news reports of the internal survey conducted by the Nomination Committee which showed a majority of senior executives distrusted Kurumatani-san will be viewed as the tipping point...But investors should note that the results of that survey were known in March, conveyed to Kurumatani-san at end-March, and the Board knew it at end-March - before the CVC bid. The results of that survey were not enough to ask for his head at the time unless the CVC bid was well-and-truly concocted by CVC and Kurumatani-san himself as a way to maintain power. If that is the case, CVC needs to get out in front of it, by being very public in refuting that, and continuing with a bid, even if they bid to lose. This whole situation, as I suggested last week, is getting interestinger. And we have toast. Officially, before I even finished this piece, Toshiba is out with a <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210414_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> saying Kurumatani-san is out and Tsunakawa-san is in. It's pretty spare, but there is a news conference after the close.NOW we look at what comes next. With KKR and Brookfield potential bids, and more details about CVC intentions overnight, it's worth looking at structure. So there's more below the fold.

That famous phrase is not internally contradictory. It announces the death of the late monarch, and announces the ascension of the new monarch to replace him. A flurry of articles late last night Japan time - some of them referenced in a few discussion points posted to the most recent insight Gaming Out a CVC Bid for Toshiba - The Right Noises, The Wrong Price, and Toast and others said that Kurumatani-san was going to be dismissed, or resign, at an extraordinary board meeting to be held on the 14th of April. The various articles were more or less revealing depending on how much the masthead represents Japan as Japan Inc would have itself represented. Articles from institutions with a more neutral/critical eye were more forthcoming about the turmoil under the surface. The phrases from the former were on the order of "it became inevitable that Kurumatani-san would have to resign." The FT suggested one board member would put forth a motion to dismiss him after the CVC approach last week threw senior management into "civil war."Later versions suggested Kurumatani-san would himself resign at the beginning of a meeting, which would forestall an effort to boot him (The King is Dead). Toshiba's exchange release this morning in response to press coverage all but confirms it.If Kurumatani-san is going to fall on his sword because of the CVC conflict (and the idea that by getting CVC to bid to distract from the other things going on, he was somehow entrenching himself in ways not befitting Toshiba adherence to the spirit of the Corporate Governance Code), one would expect Fujimori-san may resign as well. All the stories suggest the current Chairman and former CEO Tsunakawa-san would take the reins (Long Live the King!) but despite Tsunakawa-san being on friendlier terms with some of the activists, the Board needs to find someone else. I expect there would be shareholder pressure to have that person come from without, but Toshiba is a sensitive asset and there could be considerable pressure to have that person come from within, or if from without, from within the Keidanren. I think investors need to prepare themselves for the possibility that the replacement for Tsunakawa-san may not be the CEO Toshiba needs either, but that may be jumping the gun.The result is not dissimilar to what Mio Kato and I had suggested was inevitable, but the speed of the unwind may catch people by surprise. I expect that the news reports of the internal survey conducted by the Nomination Committee which showed a majority of senior executives distrusted Kurumatani-san will be viewed as the tipping point...But investors should note that the results of that survey were known in March, conveyed to Kurumatani-san at end-March, and the Board knew it at end-March - before the CVC bid. The results of that survey were not enough to ask for his head at the time unless the CVC bid was well-and-truly concocted by CVC and Kurumatani-san himself as a way to maintain power. If that is the case, CVC needs to get out in front of it, by being very public in refuting that, and continuing with a bid, even if they bid to lose. This whole situation, as I suggested last week, is getting interestinger. And we have toast. Officially, before I even finished this piece, Toshiba is out with a press release saying Kurumatani-san is out and Tsunakawa-san is in. It's pretty spare, but there is a news conference after the close.NOW we look at what comes next. With KKR and Brookfield potential bids, and more details about CVC intentions overnight, it's worth looking at structure. So there's more below the fold.

Toshiba - The King Is Dead, Long Live the King