Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Philippines: Spotlight on Growth - Not Returns

Real Lending Rates Primer – An Important Economic Signal

Real Lending Rate Signals: Warnings Now Flashing in India and Indonesia

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)

For the last five years we had been positive about the Philippines (starting with Asianomics Country Report No. 3/2012, <a href="https://www.asianomicsgroup.com/document-view.html?ref=f350e034-9dfc-4008-8f78-58891e381d71" target="_blank">All In on Noy-Noy</a>, 19 March). Economic growth accelerated to levels rarely seen in the last 40 years, but we have to say that we are increasingly nervous. Our anxiety has nothing to do with President Duterte, our concerns have grown over the last two years since real lending rates moved into malinvestment territory.In our view, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will need to substantially raise rates over the next year, which will have implications for equity market performance. The Philippines has been the true outperformer of Asia since 2010 but the signs of a boom that is long-in-the-tooth are beginning to show. Prepare for a bumpier ride.

For the last five years we had been positive about the Philippines (starting with Asianomics Country Report No. 3/2012, All In on Noy-Noy, 19 March). Economic growth accelerated to levels rarely seen in the last 40 years, but we have to say that we are increasingly nervous. Our anxiety has nothing to do with President Duterte, our concerns have grown over the last two years since real lending rates moved into malinvestment territory.In our view, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will need to substantially raise rates over the next year, which will have implications for equity market performance. The Philippines has been the true outperformer of Asia since 2010 but the signs of a boom that is long-in-the-tooth are beginning to show. Prepare for a bumpier ride.

Too Much of Good Thing: Philippines Faces Some Hard Policy Choices