Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Real Lending Rate Signals: Warnings Now Flashing in India and Indonesia

Too Much of Good Thing: Philippines Faces Some Hard Policy Choices

India's Bank Recapitalisation Announcement

China Politics: The Biggest Crisis Since Tiananmen

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>Official interest rates bear little resemblance to the cost of borrowing faced by companies making investment decisions. In the US, for example, the Fed Funds rate is 1.25%, while the prime lending rate is 4.25%. It is the prime rate that is of most relevance to ordinary businesses thinking about investing to expand.</p><p>But for those of us interested in the economic cycle and the decisions being made by businesses it is the real lending rate that matters. When real lending rates are too low (too negative) they encourage malinvestment. When they are too high (too positive) they constrain economic growth. But what constitutes ‘too high’ and ‘too low’ rates? Austrian economic theory yields some interesting insights in this respect. In the following Insight we explain the thinking behind the real lending rate calculations we use to determine where Asian countries are in the business cycle.</p>

Official interest rates bear little resemblance to the cost of borrowing faced by companies making investment decisions. In the US, for example, the Fed Funds rate is 1.25%, while the prime lending rate is 4.25%. It is the prime rate that is of most relevance to ordinary businesses thinking about investing to expand.But for those of us interested in the economic cycle and the decisions being made by businesses it is the real lending rate that matters. When real lending rates are too low (too negative) they encourage malinvestment. When they are too high (too positive) they constrain economic growth. But what constitutes ‘too high’ and ‘too low’ rates? Austrian economic theory yields some interesting insights in this respect. In the following Insight we explain the thinking behind the real lending rate calculations we use to determine where Asian countries are in the business cycle.

Real Lending Rates Primer – An Important Economic Signal