ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Summary of the insights across ASEAN@SmartkarmaThe below is a short summary of the Bottom-up and Top-down &amp; Thematic Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma. Please scroll down for a more detailed curation and do get in touch should you have any more questions or would like some live time with the insight provider.In his insight, The Next Victim of the KFC Deal Could Be...Pepsi! , our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks back at the decline of Pepsi in Thailand from the heady days when it used to control 70% of the soft drinks market. The recent acquisition of 240 KFC outlets by CP Group may further dent Pepsi's share, as the company may decide to push its own Est brand into those outlets.In TPG Sets Its Sights on SingTel’s Home Markets, but FVE up to SGD 3.65 on Associates and Currency, our friends at Morningstar increases their fair value estimate for Singapore Telecommunications Limited (ST SP) to SGD 3.65 per share from SGD 3.50 per share following the release of results.In Wilmar’s 2Q Results a Miss Due to Weak Tropical Oils and Sugar Performance; FVE Lowered to SGD 2.46, Morningstar notes that despite a turnaround from net loss of USD 220 million a year ago, Wilmar’s second-quarter 2017 net profit of USD60 million was a miss, owing to disappointing performance from the tropical oils and sugar segments. In‘GLP Wannabe?’ Revisiting China Logistics Property Holdings After Sale of Global Logistic Properties , our own Daniel Hellberg notes that after the bidding process for Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP) concluded in July, with the company being taken private at a significant premium to the value of its underlying warehouse holdings, it's not surprising that other players in China's warehouse segment would want to compare themselves to GLP.In ICTSI 2Q17 - Conservative Approach to Portfolio Expansion, shipping specialist Drewry Maritime Financial Research looks at Intl Container Term Svcs Inc (ICT PM) post its results.In Singapore: Despite Trade-Led Rebound, Uneven Growth Necessitates Targeted Policy Support, economic insight provider  Jason Tan notes the Singapore economy recorded a stronger-than-expected performance, supported by better global sentiment and robust growth in the G3 bloc of advanced economies and China. In China Shows ASEAN Who’s Boss, Manu Bhaskaran suggests that differences between pro-Chinese ASEAN nations and those more concerned about China’s assertiveness delayed the issuance of the communiqué of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting. In Want to Make Money in Myanmar? Visit Sing-Myanmar Please..., insight provider Henry Soediarko looks at Singapore Myanmar Investco Ltd (SMI SP) which has 5 main business units (tourism, heavy machinery, car rental, telecommunication, and storage). In Thailand: Government Aid to Suppress NPLs, Support Consumption, insight provider Jason Tan notes that the recent flash flood displaced many people across the north, northeastern and central provinces of Thailand. The Bank of Thailand has called upon financial institutes to aid affected victims by easing debt repayment. In Indonesia: Three Implications of Underperformance, Manu Bhaskaran notes that three years into his presidential term and with the next election now less than 2 years away, President Jokowi has not been able to deliver the 7% growth he had promised. He will now feel under greater pressure to show quick results or risk losing the next election. In Manufacturing Pillars of SG’s Capital Goods Industry, Geoff Howie comments on Singapore's PMI numbers and the implications for listed stocks. in Malaysia Is Not Happy with Singapore, Manu Bhaskaran notes that Bank Negara Malaysia has cautioned SGX and ICE Futures Singapore that their launch of Ringgit futures runs counter to Malaysia’s policy against offshore trading of the Ringgit, and warned that action will be taken against anyone that does not comply with Malaysia’s Financial Services Act. In Asian Outlook: Moderation Not a Sign of Malaise, Manu Bhaskaran looks ta recent trade numbers across the region and suggests that the slowdown is not a concern.in USDSGD  Last Push Down Before Strong Bounce, EMVEST PARTNERS looks at the technicals of the SGD (USDSGD CURNCY) and suggests that it is ripe for a bounce, with a push towards SGD1.39/1.40 to the USD (USD CURNCY)In STAR: Biggest Refiner Outside the PTT Group, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA admits that PTT PCL (PTT TB) is by far the mightiest business group in Thailand's oil &amp; gas sector, but there is one refiner that isn't owned by PTT, and that's Star Petroleum Refining Pcl (SPRC TB).In Beauty Community: Re-Accelerating, BUY, Vaibhav Saharan notes that Beauty Community Pcl (BEAUTY TB) trounced estimates across all line items in 2Q17 results. Sales growth of +50% created strong operating leverage that led of doubling of Net Income, which was ahead of estimates by 20%. In The Philippines: Tax Reforms Hamstrung by Politics, Manu Bhaskaran notes that administration’s inability to pass the tax reforms in spite of a nominal majority in both Houses of Congress suggests that political resistance, especially in the Senate, is greater than anticipated.In Short Term Pain = Long Term Benefit?, Henry Soediarko looks at Best World International Limited (BEST SP) which saw its share price fall 12% in one day last week on heavy volume, after the Chinese regulator said on Monday they will crack down on a pyramid scheme.In Rebounding Singapore Residential Property Market, Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao points to billion dollar bids for Government land, larger and larger quantum paid for private projects for redevelopment and new launches of condominiums sold out in a day, highlighting that these have been the eye-catching headlines for Singapore’s private residential property market.In Fighting Fruits &amp; Kiosk King, out Thai based insight provider Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks a Malee Sampran Public Co Ltd (MALEE TB) and Forth Corp Pcl (FORTH TB) and comes out in favor of the latter. In Procurri: Main Shareholder DeClout Launches Strategic Review; Sale Process Could Yield 100%+ Upside, small-cap specialist Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to Procurri Corporation Limited (PROC SP) post the announcement of a strategic review by its parent Declout Ltd (DLL SP) of its IT infra assets Beaqon (not listed) and Procurri Corporation Limited (PROC SP) itself.In World War Three: Part 1 – Falling Fertility, Dr. Jim Walker looks at what might be the greatest war of all. It is a type of war unknown in human history and nothing to do with Donald Trump: a war between the young and the old and potentially, even members of the same family.In Indo Small Cap Banks: Key Lessons from 1H17 Results, Johannes Salim, CFA takes a close look at two of the smaller Indonesian banks including Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ) a post 1H17 results.In TEL: Fixed-Line Broadband Demand Growth Called For, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA suggests that PLDT should benefit from an estimated 10m homes buying fixed-line broadband service in the near future; the company currently serves 2m customers using such services in the Philippines, making up 50% of its total of its customer base. In Singapore Primary Home Sales Surged by 35% M-O-M in July The Peril of ‘Peak Supply’ Analyses, insight provider Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao looks at Singapore private residential primary home sales numbers, which rebounded after three consecutive months of decline in July.In The World of the Worlds (Part 3) - Going Nuclear, former Jakatan Angus Mackintosh continues to explore the online versus offline theme in Indonesia, as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US) announced a larger than expected US$1.1bn investment in C2C player Tokopedia. In his insight, EDC PM Voluntary (Partial) Tender Offer - The Arb Grids, our own Travis Lundy follows up from an insight a week plus ago from David Blennerhassett, which discussed Macquarie Infrastructure and GIC's a partial offer at PHP7.25/share for Energy Development Corp (EDC PM).  Travis Lundy offers us his Travis' Patented Arb Grids™ to judge the attractiveness of the deal. In Vale Indonesia: Initiate with a Sell, Surabhi Chopra writes on Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ) and takes a negatived stance on the largest lateritic nickel mine in the world. It has good corporate governance and has been increasing production and reducing costs to combat the downturn in nickel prices. We are initiating with a sell rating on INCO mainly because of our bearish view on the nickel prices and the stock is trading at high PER 2018 valuation compared to its peers. She also expects consensus earnings downgrades in line with the 1H17 results and our bearish view on the nickel prices.In Thai Media Spotlight: Fewer But Major Hits in Q4’17, our Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at the entertainment space and assesses the pipeline of new movies and TV shows in 2H17He also takes a look at the competitive environment, more especially from online players. He also sees the launch of Facebook Watch, which could prove interesting given that Bangkok has more Facebook users than any other city in the world. Major Cineplex Group Pcl (MAJOR TB) should have a better 2H17, on some interesting movie launches. BEC World Public Co Ltd (BEC TB) should also see a strong 2H17. Contact: angus.mackintosh@smartkarma.com 

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - China Logistics, Pepsi Break, and Beauty