SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Singtel traded at S$3.65 on 16 April, marking its highest level since January 2017, with a 15.9% total return in 2025 year-to-date.</li><li>Institutions net sold S$145.5 million from STI Banks but net bought S$133 million in the rest of the market, with telecommunications seeing the highest inflow.</li><li>Singtel's ST28 plan aims to enhance customer experiences and shareholder value, identifying S$6 billion in monetisable assets.</li></ul>

Singtel traded at S$3.65 on 16 April, marking its highest level since January 2017, with a 15.9% total return in 2025 year-to-date.Institutions net sold S$145.5 million from STI Banks but net bought S$133 million in the rest of the market, with telecommunications seeing the highest inflow.Singtel's ST28 plan aims to enhance customer experiences and shareholder value, identifying S$6 billion in monetisable assets.

Institutional Investors Net Buy Telcos as STI Recovers 4.5% Over Five Sessions

<ul><li>Retail investors net bought S$1.24 billion of Singapore stocks, while institutions net sold S$333 million over eight sessions.</li><li>STI Banks led net retail inflow with a 12.3% average decline; Telecommunications led net retail outflow, driven by Singtel.</li><li>Buybacks by primary-listed companies totaled S$265 million; 20 stocks with highest net retail inflow saw 12.0% average decline.</li></ul>

Retail investors net bought S$1.24 billion of Singapore stocks, while institutions net sold S$333 million over eight sessions.STI Banks led net retail inflow with a 12.3% average decline; Telecommunications led net retail outflow, driven by Singtel.Buybacks by primary-listed companies totaled S$265 million; 20 stocks with highest net retail inflow saw 12.0% average decline.

Net Retail Buying Surpasses S$1.24B Amid Recent Volatility

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

<ul><li>Seatrium reported FY24 net profit of S$200 million, revenue growth of 27%, and proposed a 1.5 cent dividend.</li><li>Singtel's ST28 strategy focuses on connectivity, digital services, and infrastructure, identifying S$6 billion in monetisable assets.</li><li>CapitaLand Investment aims to scale FUM to S$200 billion by 2028, focusing on asset-light, fee income model.</li></ul>

Seatrium reported FY24 net profit of S$200 million, revenue growth of 27%, and proposed a 1.5 cent dividend.Singtel's ST28 strategy focuses on connectivity, digital services, and infrastructure, identifying S$6 billion in monetisable assets.CapitaLand Investment aims to scale FUM to S$200 billion by 2028, focusing on asset-light, fee income model.

Market Leaders Pursuing Significant Strategic Transformations

<ul><li>Banks DBS, OCBC, and UOB, accounting for 54% of STI's weight, averaged 3.2% returns in January 2025.  </li><li>Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow exceeding S$500 million in January 2025.  </li><li>Keppel Pacific Oak REIT led the S-REIT sector with a 17.1% return in USD terms in January 2025.</li></ul>

Banks DBS, OCBC, and UOB, accounting for 54% of STI's weight, averaged 3.2% returns in January 2025.  Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow exceeding S$500 million in January 2025.  Keppel Pacific Oak REIT led the S-REIT sector with a 17.1% return in USD terms in January 2025.

STI Begins New Year with 1.8% Return, Led by Singtel & Seatrium

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

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Singtel (ST SP)

Institutional Investors Net Buy Telcos as STI Recovers 4.5% Over Five Sessions

Singtel traded at S$3.65 on 16 April, marking its highest level since January 2017, with a 15.9% total return in 2025 year-to-date. Institutions...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Net Retail Buying Surpasses S$1.24B Amid Recent Volatility

Retail investors net bought S$1.24 billion of Singapore stocks, while institutions net sold S$333 million over eight sessions. STI Banks led net...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Market Leaders Pursuing Significant Strategic Transformations

Seatrium reported FY24 net profit of S$200 million, revenue growth of 27%, and proposed a 1.5 cent dividend. Singtel's ST28 strategy focuses on...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

STI Begins New Year with 1.8% Return, Led by Singtel & Seatrium

Banks DBS, OCBC, and UOB, accounting for 54% of STI's weight, averaged 3.2% returns in January 2025. Institutions were net sellers of Singapore...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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