ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>Special Insight</h2></div>In this fascinating insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/confessions-of-an-independent-research-analyst" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15143">Confessions of an Independent Research Analyst</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342">Douglas Kim</a> presents his experiences as an independent analyst over theist two years. He presents his honest view of his experience and discusses both the rewards and the challenges of an independent research analyst and third-party research platforms. Many insight providers are likely to have similar struggles and may have asked the same questions that are highlighted in this report. The global research in a post-Mifid II environment is likely to change dramatically. The clients that read this report may also get an improved understanding of how to better utilize independent research analysts and recognize their limitations as well. <div class="content-highlight">This weeks sees yet another eclectic mix of Insights coming out of <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma," target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma,</a> including both equity  bottom up and Top Dow &amp; Thematic. I include below a brief summary. Please scroll down to the detail section fuller recount of this week's insights in ASEAN. </div>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/breadtalk-3q17-shows-further-margin-improvement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15054">Breadtalk 3Q17 Shows Further Margin Improvement</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15888" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15888:1">Breadtalk Group Ltd (BREAD SP)</a> post the company's 3Q17 results. It continues its trend of lower revenues but higher profits. In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/call-with-nielsen-is-it-weaker-purchasing-power-or-online-shopping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15022">Call with Nielsen: Is It Weaker Purchasing Power or Online Shopping?</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> reports back after a  conference call with Nielsen Indonesia which revealed that FMCG consumption growth up to -September has decelerated to only 2.7% growth YoY. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/uob-posts-another-solid-3q-result-fve-increases-to-sgd-25-60" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15056">UOB Posts Another Solid 3Q Result; FVE Increases to SGD 25.60</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/146" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:146">Morningstar</a> write on this leading Singapore bank. Higher expected loan growth, improving margins in Singapore, and good fee income growth underpinned UOB's solid quarterly result.in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-reit-weekly-what-transpired-in-the-s-reit-scene-cache-resolves-schenker-dispute" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14936">S-REIT Weekly: What Transpired in the S-REIT Scene - Cache Resolves Schenker Dispute</a>, Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1787">Will Tan, CAIA</a> presents a weekly summary covering the week of 30 Oct 2017 on news flow reported in the media and updates on the Singapore REIT (S-REIT) sector, along with a recap on notable research by the Smartkarma community. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-reveals-far-worse-bad-loans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15058">DBS Reveals Far Worse Bad Loans</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)</a>, which revealed some of its worst non-performing asset (NPA) formation in years during the latest quarter. And yet this was a period of rising oil prices.In this technical insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-trailing-se-asia-breakout-cycle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15066">Malaysia Trailing SE Asia Breakout Cycle</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder</a> follows up on his previous piece, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/compelling-case-to-buy-malaysia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14824">Compelling Case to Buy Malaysia</a> in order to visualize the breakout cycle that is unfolding in SE Asia and why Malaysia is likely to close the margin with SE Asian counterparts.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matahari-department-store-key-takeaways-from-the-call" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14993">Matahari Department Store: Key Takeaways from the Call</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1">PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> post its post results conference call. The 3Q17 earnings call highlighted continued optimism of CEO Richard Gibson, especially on the company's ability to cope with the threat of e-commerce. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-steam-ahead-for-trade-driven-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15099">Full Steam Ahead for Trade-Driven Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1567">Nicholas Chia</a> comments on the recent strength in exports from Taiwan and Malaysia.  He notes that trade-focused Asian economies continue to be the beneficiaries of the ongoing upswing in the fortunes of the global economy, as evidenced by the stellar growth in such Asian exporters.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xl-axiata-3q17-results-show-it-finally-starting-to-deliver-strong-results" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15103">XL Axiata 3Q17 Results Show It Finally Starting to Deliver Strong Results</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> zero in on the Indonesian telco space and note that while results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1051" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1">PT Telkom (TLKM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5737" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1">Indosat (ISAT IJ)</a> were disappointing in 3Q, there are signs of a strong turnaround from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15028" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>.In this differentiated insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-infrastructure-unusual-suspects" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14026">Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> sigs deep into the infrastructure theme and looks what he sees as the "Unusual suspects", which are infrastructure plays that often fly under the radar of foreign investors due to market cap and liquidity concerns. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/san-miguel-restructuring-suggests-secondary-offering-may-be-on-the-way-for-san-miguel-pure-foods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15090">San Miguel Restructuring Suggests Secondary Offering May Be on the Way for San Miguel Pure Foods</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:290">Mark Artherton</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22728" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1">San Miguel Corporation (SMC PM)</a> after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22728" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1">San Miguel Corporation (SMC PM)</a> announced a restructuring of the group including a share swap with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22934" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22934:1">San Miguel Pure Foods Co Inc (PF PM)</a> .  Pure foods will acquire SMC's stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23029" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1">Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI PM)</a> and San Miguel Brewery ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16977" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1">Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (2503 JP)</a> is a 49.9% owner of SM Brewery).  Share prices of Pure Foods and Ginebra have already reacted to the news. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-airlines-q2-results-parent-better-but-minimal-improvement-overall-dividend-11" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15130">Singapore Airlines Q2 Results - Parent Better but Minimal Improvement Overall. Dividend +11%</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/667" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:667">Alan Greene</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/74" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1">Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA SP)</a> 2Q18 results, which saw the parent perform significantly better versus the previous quarter but its other brands Silk Air and Scoot fared less well due to intense competition in the budget airline space. Its cargo business continues its turnaround.  The pressure on yields needs to relent otherwise the upward trend in fuel prices will undo any margin benefits achieved so far.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/reality-check-x-what-does-the-iphone-8-launch-mean-for-thai-operators" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13423">Reality Check X: What Does the IPhone 8 Launch Mean for Thai Operators?</a>, our Thai guru examines the impact of the launch of the latest Apple offerings on the Thai mobile players. It will be a games of subsidies but in the end he continues to prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/947" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1">Advanced Info Service Pcl (ADVANC TB)</a> over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/948" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>, despite its lower subsidy offering.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/latest-surge-in-provisions-at-dbs-in-asian-context-they-are-not-high" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15137">Latest Surge in Provisions at DBS in Asian Context: They Are Not High</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> examines the provisioning levels at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)</a>. He notes that the rise of impairment costs at the bank was necessary and belated. He would expect further catch up to come through for UOB and OCBC in coming quarters. In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/four-themes-from-the-wef-global-competitiveness-index-for-developing-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14706">Four Themes from the WEF Global Competitiveness Index for Developing Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> takes a close look at the WEF Global Competitiveness index and finds four major themes in relative competitiveness across selected economies in East and Southeast Asia in recent years. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-posts-in-line-3q-result-underlying-trends-for-its-shopping-malls-continue-to-improve" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15178">CapitaLand Posts In-Line 3Q Result; Underlying Trends for Its Shopping Malls Continue to Improve</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/146" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:146">Morningstar</a> zero in on recent results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/55" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55:1">Capitaland Ltd (CAPL SP)</a> and suggest the company's 3Q17 result in line. Both businesses performed well in the quarter, with underlying trends for the mall business improving.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-pp-persero-a-less-flashy-but-solid-contractor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15170">PT PP Persero: A Less Flashy But Solid Contractor</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> comments on this well established Indonesian contractor, following a conference call with management. He sees the company as a solid contractor, notably with higher margins than rival SOEs. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/banyan-tree-3q17-results-are-a-non-event-focus-on-lt-impact-of-vanke-and-accor-partnerships" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15213">Banyan Tree 3Q17 Results Are a Non-Event; Focus on LT Impact of Vanke and Accor Partnerships</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18141" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18141:1">Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd (BTH SP)</a> results which he sees as a non-event. The 3Q17 numbers don't alter the investment thesis at all. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singtel-keeping-most-of-the-netlink-trust-proceeds-fve-down-to-sgd-3-55-mainly-on-currency" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15218">SingTel Keeping Most of the Netlink Trust Proceeds; FVE Down to SGD 3.55, Mainly on Currency</a>, our friends at  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/146" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:146">Morningstar</a> dive deep into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1">Singapore Telecommunications Limited (ST SP)</a> results and reduce their fair value estimate as a result.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eagle-high-plantations-flying-higher-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15101">Eagle High Plantations - Flying Higher</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4421" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4421:1">Eagle High Plantations Tbk P (BWPT IJ)</a>, which he sees is on the cusp of moving out of its investment period and into its harvest time. It has one of the youngest age profiles in the plantation space and the next five years should see rising production alongside rising yields.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitra-adiperkasa-back-in-trim-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15191">Mitra Adiperkasa - Back in Trim</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18684" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1">Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ)</a>, which continues to make significant progress on its restructuring, which has been three years in the making. The exit from underperforming department stores Lotus and Debenhams this year remove another drag to earnings.

Special InsightIn this fascinating insight, Confessions of an Independent Research Analyst, Douglas Kim presents his experiences as an independent analyst over theist two years. He presents his honest view of his experience and discusses both the rewards and the challenges of an independent research analyst and third-party research platforms. Many insight providers are likely to have similar struggles and may have asked the same questions that are highlighted in this report. The global research in a post-Mifid II environment is likely to change dramatically. The clients that read this report may also get an improved understanding of how to better utilize independent research analysts and recognize their limitations as well. This weeks sees yet another eclectic mix of Insights coming out of ASEAN@Smartkarma, including both equity  bottom up and Top Dow &amp; Thematic. I include below a brief summary. Please scroll down to the detail section fuller recount of this week's insights in ASEAN. In Breadtalk 3Q17 Shows Further Margin Improvement, Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to Breadtalk Group Ltd (BREAD SP) post the company's 3Q17 results. It continues its trend of lower revenues but higher profits. In his insight, Call with Nielsen: Is It Weaker Purchasing Power or Online Shopping?, Johannes Salim, CFA reports back after a  conference call with Nielsen Indonesia which revealed that FMCG consumption growth up to -September has decelerated to only 2.7% growth YoY. In UOB Posts Another Solid 3Q Result; FVE Increases to SGD 25.60, our friends at Morningstar write on this leading Singapore bank. Higher expected loan growth, improving margins in Singapore, and good fee income growth underpinned UOB's solid quarterly result.in S-REIT Weekly: What Transpired in the S-REIT Scene - Cache Resolves Schenker Dispute, Insight Provider Will Tan, CAIA presents a weekly summary covering the week of 30 Oct 2017 on news flow reported in the media and updates on the Singapore REIT (S-REIT) sector, along with a recap on notable research by the Smartkarma community. In DBS Reveals Far Worse Bad Loans, Daniel Tabbush comments on DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP), which revealed some of its worst non-performing asset (NPA) formation in years during the latest quarter. And yet this was a period of rising oil prices.In this technical insight, Malaysia Trailing SE Asia Breakout Cycle, Thomas Schroeder follows up on his previous piece, Compelling Case to Buy Malaysia in order to visualize the breakout cycle that is unfolding in SE Asia and why Malaysia is likely to close the margin with SE Asian counterparts.In Matahari Department Store: Key Takeaways from the Call, Johannes Salim, CFA comments on PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) post its post results conference call. The 3Q17 earnings call highlighted continued optimism of CEO Richard Gibson, especially on the company's ability to cope with the threat of e-commerce. In Full Steam Ahead for Trade-Driven Asia, Nicholas Chia comments on the recent strength in exports from Taiwan and Malaysia.  He notes that trade-focused Asian economies continue to be the beneficiaries of the ongoing upswing in the fortunes of the global economy, as evidenced by the stellar growth in such Asian exporters.In XL Axiata 3Q17 Results Show It Finally Starting to Deliver Strong Results, our friends at New Street Research zero in on the Indonesian telco space and note that while results from PT Telkom (TLKM IJ) and Indosat (ISAT IJ) were disappointing in 3Q, there are signs of a strong turnaround from XL Axiata (EXCL IJ).In this differentiated insight, Indonesian Infrastructure - UnUsual Suspects, Henry Soediarko sigs deep into the infrastructure theme and looks what he sees as the "Unusual suspects", which are infrastructure plays that often fly under the radar of foreign investors due to market cap and liquidity concerns. In San Miguel Restructuring Suggests Secondary Offering May Be on the Way for San Miguel Pure Foods, Mark Artherton zeros in on San Miguel Corporation (SMC PM) after San Miguel Corporation (SMC PM) announced a restructuring of the group including a share swap with San Miguel Pure Foods Co Inc (PF PM) .  Pure foods will acquire SMC's stakes in Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI PM) and San Miguel Brewery ( Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (2503 JP) is a 49.9% owner of SM Brewery).  Share prices of Pure Foods and Ginebra have already reacted to the news. In Singapore Airlines Q2 Results - Parent Better but Minimal Improvement Overall. Dividend +11%, Alan Greene comments on Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA SP) 2Q18 results, which saw the parent perform significantly better versus the previous quarter but its other brands Silk Air and Scoot fared less well due to intense competition in the budget airline space. Its cargo business continues its turnaround.  The pressure on yields needs to relent otherwise the upward trend in fuel prices will undo any margin benefits achieved so far.In Reality Check X: What Does the IPhone 8 Launch Mean for Thai Operators?, our Thai guru examines the impact of the launch of the latest Apple offerings on the Thai mobile players. It will be a games of subsidies but in the end he continues to prefer Advanced Info Service Pcl (ADVANC TB) over Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB), despite its lower subsidy offering.In Latest Surge in Provisions at DBS in Asian Context: They Are Not High, Daniel Tabbush examines the provisioning levels at DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP). He notes that the rise of impairment costs at the bank was necessary and belated. He would expect further catch up to come through for UOB and OCBC in coming quarters. In his insight, Four Themes from the WEF Global Competitiveness Index for Developing Asia, Manu Bhaskaran takes a close look at the WEF Global Competitiveness index and finds four major themes in relative competitiveness across selected economies in East and Southeast Asia in recent years. In CapitaLand Posts In-Line 3Q Result; Underlying Trends for Its Shopping Malls Continue to Improve, our friends at Morningstar zero in on recent results from Capitaland Ltd (CAPL SP) and suggest the company's 3Q17 result in line. Both businesses performed well in the quarter, with underlying trends for the mall business improving.In PT PP Persero: A Less Flashy But Solid Contractor, Johannes Salim, CFA comments on this well established Indonesian contractor, following a conference call with management. He sees the company as a solid contractor, notably with higher margins than rival SOEs. In Banyan Tree 3Q17 Results Are a Non-Event; Focus on LT Impact of Vanke and Accor Partnerships, Nicolas Van Broekhoven comments on Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd (BTH SP) results which he sees as a non-event. The 3Q17 numbers don't alter the investment thesis at all. In SingTel Keeping Most of the Netlink Trust Proceeds; FVE Down to SGD 3.55, Mainly on Currency, our friends at  Morningstar dive deep into Singapore Telecommunications Limited (ST SP) results and reduce their fair value estimate as a result.In Eagle High Plantations - Flying Higher, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh circles back to Eagle High Plantations Tbk P (BWPT IJ), which he sees is on the cusp of moving out of its investment period and into its harvest time. It has one of the youngest age profiles in the plantation space and the next five years should see rising production alongside rising yields.In Mitra Adiperkasa - Back in Trim, Angus Mackintosh zeros in on Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ), which continues to make significant progress on its restructuring, which has been three years in the making. The exit from underperforming department stores Lotus and Debenhams this year remove another drag to earnings. 

Jaya Konstruksi Manggala Pratama (JKON IJ)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP)

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Breadtalk,Trade, and Competitiveness