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Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tesla’s federal tax benefit will start phasing out from 3Q 2018. This would increase the price of a Model 3 by 11% from 3Q 2018, and 27% from 3Q 2019.</li><li>Model S and Model X sales are likely to see a temporary boost on the news of the expiry of the tax benefit, with potential buyers wanting to purchase before the benefit expires. </li></ul><ul><li>Sale of ZEV credits will have a positive USD 4.40 impact on Tesla’s EPS, should Tesla reach their target of 500,000 auto deliveries for 2018.</li></ul><ul><li>The price of a Tesla can be reduced by 33% in China when produced domestically, this might encourage Tesla to start producing in China.</li></ul>

Tesla’s federal tax benefit will start phasing out from 3Q 2018. This would increase the price of a Model 3 by 11% from 3Q 2018, and 27% from 3Q 2019.Model S and Model X sales are likely to see a temporary boost on the news of the expiry of the tax benefit, with potential buyers wanting to purchase before the benefit expires. Sale of ZEV credits will have a positive USD 4.40 impact on Tesla’s EPS, should Tesla reach their target of 500,000 auto deliveries for 2018.The price of a Tesla can be reduced by 33% in China when produced domestically, this might encourage Tesla to start producing in China.

Tesla

Tesla: Living Off Subsidies