TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Spotify Analyst Day: We’re Going to Be Huge and Profitable in 10 Years

TMT Earnings Quick Hits: Spotify and ServiceNow

Long Idea: Warner Music’s New CEO Could Prove a Catalyst

Spotify 1Q21 Earnings: What Is an Audio Platform Worth? 2-3x Sales?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.</li>
<li>Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. </li>
<li>While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.</li>
</ul>


Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.
Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. 
While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.


Spotify

Spotify 1Q22 Earnings: Netflix Like?