Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Markets Fear Bad Outcomes for Fed Policy, but Inflation Currently Trumps Equity Prices

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Geopolitics Raises Risks of Fed Policy Error as Sanctions Fallout Threaten Global Inflation

Reaching Neutral Settings for Fed Policy: Littered With Pitfalls in Uncharted Territory

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed's urgency to return the federal funds rate to neutrality by year-end has recently risen. Further upside risks depend on whether inflation risks have receded sufficiently by 2023 Q1.</li>
<li>The current strength of US labour demand seems inconsistent with the imminent onset of recession.  Companies may feel comfortable about labour hoarding if they are able to raise selling prices.</li>
<li>Analysts are optimistic about higher operating margins in 2023, but equity investors are reluctant to pay richer valuations due to greater economic risks, courtesy of more hawkish Fed policy. </li>
</ul>


The Fed's urgency to return the federal funds rate to neutrality by year-end has recently risen. Further upside risks depend on whether inflation risks have receded sufficiently by 2023 Q1.
The current strength of US labour demand seems inconsistent with the imminent onset of recession.  Companies may feel comfortable about labour hoarding if they are able to raise selling prices.
Analysts are optimistic about higher operating margins in 2023, but equity investors are reluctant to pay richer valuations due to greater economic risks, courtesy of more hawkish Fed policy. 


Rush to Normalise Fed Policy Settings Raises Questions Over US Corporate Profits Outlook