Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Clear Recovery in Jan-Mar, Accelerating Sharply in Apr'21; Ample Scope for Stimulus

Export-Led Recovery to Broaden as 2nd Covid Wave Recedes

India: Exports Lead Industrial Rebound, While Fiscal Policy Remains Prudent

India: 2nd Covid Wave Will Delay (Not Halt) The Strength of the Economic Rebound

India: Public Investment, Privatization & Bank Reform Set the Stage for Faster Growth

India: Incredible Fiscal Responsibility Amid the Economic Devastation of Covid

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

With manufacturing output growing 5.8% YoY in Jan-Mar 2021 (4Q-FY2020/21), we estimate that real GDP grew 4.5% YoY that quarter -- far above the consensus of +1.2% YoY -- thus ensuring a contraction of -6% for FY2020/21 (much better than the official estimate of -8%). April 2021 saw a spectacular year-on-year rebound in the economy, with exports up 196% YoY, imports up 167% and steel output up 153% YoY that month. Much of the economy was locked down in May, as the Covid 2nd Wave hammered India -- with new daily cases peaking at 414,434 on 6 May 2021, but receding to 173,882 new cases on 28 May 2021.
After the May pause, however, the economy should accelerate through the rest of FY2021/22, benefitting from last year's structural economic reforms -- particularly the liberalization of the labour market, cuts in corporate tax rates, and the introduction of production-linked incentives to boost manufacturing. This year's partial lockdowns largely exempted exports, and allowed public transportation to continue, thereby reducing the supply bottlenecks that plagued the economy in 2020. Consequently, CPI inflation will likely remain in the RBI's inflation-target range, and moderate to 4% YoY by August. Despite high oil-driven WPI inflation, we expect the RBI to cut its policy rate by 25bp each in the next two quarters, further spurring the economic recovery. 
India's vaccination drive too ran into supply bottlenecks in May, which are now easing -- with more than 3 million vaccine doses being administered daily in recent days. A total of 209 million vaccine doses have been administered, but the pace of vaccination is likely to accelerate over the next 2 months as more vaccine manufacturers are licensed and the US allows large-scale imports of vaccine ingredients to enable the ramp-up of vaccine production. India is not immune to a third wave, but will be better-prepared for one were it to occur. Manufacturing, agriculture and non-travel-intensive services are still likely to ensure 11% real GDP growth in FY2021/22 relative to the depressed levels of last year. April and June will make up partly for the losses of May, but the pace is likely to accelerate in the next two quarters. The strong economic recovery will make valuations look reasonable as earnings too rebound strongly. We would recommend staying invested in India.

With manufacturing output growing 5.8% YoY in Jan-Mar 2021 (4Q-FY2020/21), we estimate that real GDP grew 4.5% YoY that quarter -- far above the consensus of +1.2% YoY -- thus ensuring a contraction of -6% for FY2020/21 (much better than the official estimate of -8%). April 2021 saw a spectacular year-on-year rebound in the economy, with exports up 196% YoY, imports up 167% and steel output up 153% YoY that month. Much of the economy was locked down in May, as the Covid 2nd Wave hammered India -- with new daily cases peaking at 414,434 on 6 May 2021, but receding to 173,882 new cases on 28 May 2021.
After the May pause, however, the economy should accelerate through the rest of FY2021/22, benefitting from last year's structural economic reforms -- particularly the liberalization of the labour market, cuts in corporate tax rates, and the introduction of production-linked incentives to boost manufacturing. This year's partial lockdowns largely exempted exports, and allowed public transportation to continue, thereby reducing the supply bottlenecks that plagued the economy in 2020. Consequently, CPI inflation will likely remain in the RBI's inflation-target range, and moderate to 4% YoY by August. Despite high oil-driven WPI inflation, we expect the RBI to cut its policy rate by 25bp each in the next two quarters, further spurring the economic recovery. 
India's vaccination drive too ran into supply bottlenecks in May, which are now easing -- with more than 3 million vaccine doses being administered daily in recent days. A total of 209 million vaccine doses have been administered, but the pace of vaccination is likely to accelerate over the next 2 months as more vaccine manufacturers are licensed and the US allows large-scale imports of vaccine ingredients to enable the ramp-up of vaccine production. India is not immune to a third wave, but will be better-prepared for one were it to occur. Manufacturing, agriculture and non-travel-intensive services are still likely to ensure 11% real GDP growth in FY2021/22 relative to the depressed levels of last year. April and June will make up partly for the losses of May, but the pace is likely to accelerate in the next two quarters. The strong economic recovery will make valuations look reasonable as earnings too rebound strongly. We would recommend staying invested in India.  

Receding 2nd Wave Will Allow Economic Acceleration, Spurred by Rate Cuts to Come