Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Oracle Japan (4716 JP): What's Going Down?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Oracle Japan dropped 15% on Friday (June 25) after the announcement of disappointing results on Thursday. The share price is down 39% from its 52-week high (reached in February) and down 21% since we last wrote on the company at the end of March.What to do with it now?Performance deteriorated significantly in 4Q of FY May-21, when a 23.4% year-on-year decline in Cloud &amp; On-Premise License revenues more than offset growth in service and hardware, resulting in a 5.8% decline in operating profit and a 5.5% decline in net profit.On top of that, management is guidance for an increase in revenues of only 1% to 4% and an increase in EPS of 0.3% to 2.9% in the new fiscal year, pointing to a slow recovery with little room left for cost cutting.With the forward (guidance-based) P/E ratio down to 22x, Oracle Japan may no longer be a short, but it is not much of an investment either. If you like the business, look at the parent company.In the same three months to May, Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) reported 8% growth in revenues, 5% growth in operating profit and a 40% operating margin (vs. 34% for Oracle Japan). ORCL is selling at 17x projected earnings.

Oracle Japan dropped 15% on Friday (June 25) after the announcement of disappointing results on Thursday. The share price is down 39% from its 52-week high (reached in February) and down 21% since we last wrote on the company at the end of March.What to do with it now?Performance deteriorated significantly in 4Q of FY May-21, when a 23.4% year-on-year decline in Cloud &amp; On-Premise License revenues more than offset growth in service and hardware, resulting in a 5.8% decline in operating profit and a 5.5% decline in net profit.On top of that, management is guidance for an increase in revenues of only 1% to 4% and an increase in EPS of 0.3% to 2.9% in the new fiscal year, pointing to a slow recovery with little room left for cost cutting.With the forward (guidance-based) P/E ratio down to 22x, Oracle Japan may no longer be a short, but it is not much of an investment either. If you like the business, look at the parent company.In the same three months to May, Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) reported 8% growth in revenues, 5% growth in operating profit and a 40% operating margin (vs. 34% for Oracle Japan). ORCL is selling at 17x projected earnings.

Oracle Japan (4716 JP): No Longer a Short, but Not Much of an Investment

Oracle Corp Japan

Oracle Japan (4716 JP): No Longer a Short, but Not Much of an Investment