Chief Economist (US), RDQ Economics

John Ryding

Chief Economist (US)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Macroeconomics

*  The midterm elections gave the Democrats control of the House of Representatives and the party picked up seven state governors' offices but the results fell short of a 'blue wave.'  The Republicans increased their margin in the Senate and won key Senate and governor's races in Florida.
*  There are policy areas where President Trump and (presumed) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have mutual interests including infrastructure, prescription drug pricing, the opioid crisis, and immigration reform.  The President put forward a 'legislate or investigate' choice to the House Democrats.  The election result kills any prospect of a tax cut 2.0 or focus on deficit reduction.
*  Gains in the Senate will allow for easier conservative judicial appointments.  The House has no say in treaties (including trade and tariff treaties), which are the domain of the President and the Senate.  We remain of the opinion that a trade deal will be reached between the U.S. and China and look forward to the G20 meeting.
*  The election results were met with a sharp equity market rally in the U.S. as tail-risk policy uncertainties were removed, which engendered a risk-on attitude to markets.  The outlook for equities depends on profits and how wage pressures are absorbed.  The election results have no bearing on Fed policy and we see ten-year yields rising to 4.0% by the end of 2019 on larger deficits, economic strength, and rate hikes.

*  The midterm elections gave the Democrats control of the House of Representatives and the party picked up seven state governors' offices but the results fell short of a 'blue wave.'  The Republicans increased their margin in the Senate and won key Senate and governor's races in Florida.
*  There are policy areas where President Trump and (presumed) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have mutual interests including infrastructure, prescription drug pricing, the opioid crisis, and immigration reform.  The President put forward a 'legislate or investigate' choice to the House Democrats.  The election result kills any prospect of a tax cut 2.0 or focus on deficit reduction.
*  Gains in the Senate will allow for easier conservative judicial appointments.  The House has no say in treaties (including trade and tariff treaties), which are the domain of the President and the Senate.  We remain of the opinion that a trade deal will be reached between the U.S. and China and look forward to the G20 meeting.
*  The election results were met with a sharp equity market rally in the U.S. as tail-risk policy uncertainties were removed, which engendered a risk-on attitude to markets.  The outlook for equities depends on profits and how wage pressures are absorbed.  The election results have no bearing on Fed policy and we see ten-year yields rising to 4.0% by the end of 2019 on larger deficits, economic strength, and rate hikes.

Mixed Midterm Elections: Messages and Policy Implications