Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan Post – Post Office Business Delivers a Perfect Setup

Japan Post – Insurance Business Is Sandbagging Guidance

Japan Post Holdings - This Is the Big Move

Japan Post Holdings BUYBACK - Recycling Sale Proceeds As Expected; No BIG Catalyst Yet

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The Offering for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> expected to be announced today has <a href="https://www.japanpost.jp/en/ir/news/jpn/pdf/20211006_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">materialised</a>. It is 1,027,477,400 shares or roughly ¥950bn of shares. This is a Very Large Offering, but it is also a clean-up trade. After this, the government can sell no more without the company buying back more.And because the government is unlikely to ever add more money to the pot, this is likely the last equity offering Japan Post Holdings will ever do. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/832/original/Screenshot+2021-10-06+at+8.23.48+PM.png?1633523111" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233832"></figure></section>Separately, as I suggested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-this-is-the-big-move" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58429" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings - This Is the Big Move</a>, JPH has decided it will buy back shares. Unfortunately, the number and mechanism are less impactful than one would have hoped, but one cannot disregard. It pays to think about the flows. So we do, below.

The Offering for Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) expected to be announced today has materialised. It is 1,027,477,400 shares or roughly ¥950bn of shares. This is a Very Large Offering, but it is also a clean-up trade. After this, the government can sell no more without the company buying back more.And because the government is unlikely to ever add more money to the pot, this is likely the last equity offering Japan Post Holdings will ever do. Separately, as I suggested in Japan Post Holdings - This Is the Big Move, JPH has decided it will buy back shares. Unfortunately, the number and mechanism are less impactful than one would have hoped, but one cannot disregard. It pays to think about the flows. So we do, below. 

Japan Post Holdings - World's Largest Cleanup Trade Announced - Story and Index Implications