Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

How Different Is the Current Unemployment Behavior?

US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

Charting Beyond the Sanguine Stock Market

Is the Unemployment Rate Drifting Higher or Lower?

A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Arguably, the state of the US labor market is key to any recession call</li>
<li>Despite the ongoing rise in the unemployment rate, other labor market dynamics might be at play</li>
<li>One simple approach is to use the claims gap along with the unemployment rate to assess whether labor market conditions are deteriorating </li>
</ul>


Arguably, the state of the US labor market is key to any recession call
Despite the ongoing rise in the unemployment rate, other labor market dynamics might be at play
One simple approach is to use the claims gap along with the unemployment rate to assess whether labor market conditions are deteriorating 


Is the US Labor Market Signaling a Recession?