Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions

Is the US Labor Market Signaling a Recession?

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Charting Beyond the Sanguine Stock Market

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A climb in the unemployment rate can be associated with recessions, especially when dominated by a negative change in employment</li>
<li>But the recent rise in the unemployment rate through July does not seem to be consistent with the characteristics of prior recessions on balance</li>
<li>Nevertheless, further increases in the unemployment rate need not be of the same breed   </li>
</ul>


A climb in the unemployment rate can be associated with recessions, especially when dominated by a negative change in employment
But the recent rise in the unemployment rate through July does not seem to be consistent with the characteristics of prior recessions on balance
Nevertheless, further increases in the unemployment rate need not be of the same breed   


How Different Is the Current Unemployment Behavior?