Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

250 Views24 Feb 2025 12:42

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SUMMARY

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.
My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.
The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

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