Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Harmonic Drive: 4Q Margins Look Weak but This Is a One-Off. Still Expensive Though

Harmonic Drive: Order Cancellations Cause Harmonic Drive to Plunge Limit Down, -50% From Jan Top

Harmonic Drive Channel Pivot and Buy Support

Harmonic Drive Systems Placement - Options Would Be a Much Safer Bet

Harmonic Drive Orders Up 179% YoY; LT Story Still Attractive but Expectations May Be Too High

Harmonic Drive Placement: Positive on ST Momentum but Valuation Keep Us Cautious LT

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Harmonic Drive reported a strong 3Q with revenue up 16.8% QoQ to JPY14.6bn and OP up 22.3% QoQ to JPY4.0bn. The revenue growth was healthy as capacity expansion appears to have kicked in and after a brief, two-quarter plateau at about JPY12.5bn revenue, we expect 4Q to see a further jump to about JPY15.5bn in revenue. We have also been pointing out that with Harmonic Drive already boasting high OPMs, operating leverage is somewhat limited. OPM hit 27.7% in 3QFY03/18 and as the correlation chart…</p>

Harmonic Drive reported a strong 3Q with revenue up 16.8% QoQ to JPY14.6bn and OP up 22.3% QoQ to JPY4.0bn. The revenue growth was healthy as capacity expansion appears to have kicked in and after a brief, two-quarter plateau at about JPY12.5bn revenue, we expect 4Q to see a further jump to about JPY15.5bn in revenue. We have also been pointing out that with Harmonic Drive already boasting high OPMs, operating leverage is somewhat limited. OPM hit 27.7% in 3QFY03/18 and as the correlation chart…

Harmonic Drive: Revenue Expansion Resumes but What Happens Next Year?