Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK PMIs Weaker than for Historical Hikes

Purchasing Managers' Indices – Handle with Care

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK services PMI gave back all its gains in May as it fell to 53.8, which is near the February low. This fall corroborates the correction in the European Commission survey. My recently nudged up Q2 GDP growth forecast of 0.4% q-o-q now looks bullish.</li>
<li>Other PMIs were strong, but services’ dominance means it is implying UK growth at levels typically inconsistent with any policy change. I still expect the first hike in Aug-19, with risks earlier and a fair value above current market yields.</li>
</ul>…


The UK services PMI gave back all its gains in May as it fell to 53.8, which is near the February low. This fall corroborates the correction in the European Commission survey. My recently nudged up Q2 GDP growth forecast of 0.4% q-o-q now looks bullish.
Other PMIs were strong, but services’ dominance means it is implying UK growth at levels typically inconsistent with any policy change. I still expect the first hike in Aug-19, with risks earlier and a fair value above current market yields.
…

FLASH: UK Services Subdued Back to Q1 Lows