Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK PMIs Weaker than for Historical Hikes

Brexit: Sufficient to Diminish Disorderly Risk

FLASH: UK PMI Surges Back, but IP Energy Is Weak

FLASH: UK Services Subdued Back to Q1 Lows

FLASH: UK Industry Builds Better Base for Q3

FLASH: UK PMI Partially Rebounds Above Manufacturing

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK services PMI retreated to 53.2 in August, which points to 0.4% 3m-o-3m growth in the comparable sectors. My 0.4% Q3 GDP growth forecast assumes stronger than that but is not inconsistent with typical divergence here.</li>
<li>Strength in the manufacturing PMI means that the composite of these held relatively steady at levels firmly consistent with no monetary policy change in the past. I still expect the first hike in May-18, with balanced risks around that.</li>
</ul> It has been a mixed bag of PMI releases…


The UK services PMI retreated to 53.2 in August, which points to 0.4% 3m-o-3m growth in the comparable sectors. My 0.4% Q3 GDP growth forecast assumes stronger than that but is not inconsistent with typical divergence here.
Strength in the manufacturing PMI means that the composite of these held relatively steady at levels firmly consistent with no monetary policy change in the past. I still expect the first hike in May-18, with balanced risks around that.
 It has been a mixed bag of PMI releases…

FLASH: UK PMIs Point to Stability