Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

I have been working for +17 years as a quantitative researcher, offering my investment research insights to investors through two private companies I have founded (Retracement Levels Ltd. and QUANTRADING AG); more recently I worked as a Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My research work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I have created an original proprietary process (called the "Market Reversal Matrix" or "MRM") that makes extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built and supervised by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Quantitative Researcher

EQD | NIFTY Index WEEKLY Correction May Be Ending

EQD | SPX MONTHLY Proxy Supports for APAC Markets

APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been in a strong rally since early April 2023, returning almost +17% as of last Friday's Close. The MRM tool shows the index is OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY .</li>
<li>The NIFTY Index has reached a "Tails" area of the current pattern: forecasts in these price areas are less reliable, but the MRM tool indicates the index is topping.</li>
<li>
SHORT trades can be implemented at prices &gt; Last Close (19745). Higher prices are possible, it could take +1/+2 weeks for the index to complete its topping process.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been in a strong rally since early April 2023, returning almost +17% as of last Friday's Close. The MRM tool shows the index is OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY .
The NIFTY Index has reached a "Tails" area of the current pattern: forecasts in these price areas are less reliable, but the MRM tool indicates the index is topping.

SHORT trades can be implemented at prices &gt; Last Close (19745). Higher prices are possible, it could take +1/+2 weeks for the index to complete its topping process.


EQD | NIFTY Index WEEKLY: Topping (In The) Tails