Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Inflation Less Weak than Nov-22 Flash

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The ECB followed its peers by slowing to a 50bps hiking pace in December, but it asserted hawkish bias by signalling that it will sustain this pace into 2023.</li>
<li>Underlying inflation is excessively high enough for the staff forecast to persist above the target until 2025. The market may not be pricing enough sustained tightening.</li>
<li>We now expect the ECB to hike by 50bps at its February and March meetings before slowing again to 25bps in May as it approaches a 3.25% deposit rate peak.</li>
</ul>


The ECB followed its peers by slowing to a 50bps hiking pace in December, but it asserted hawkish bias by signalling that it will sustain this pace into 2023.
Underlying inflation is excessively high enough for the staff forecast to persist above the target until 2025. The market may not be pricing enough sustained tightening.
We now expect the ECB to hike by 50bps at its February and March meetings before slowing again to 25bps in May as it approaches a 3.25% deposit rate peak.


ECB: Steady Force to Crush Core Problem