Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Dollar Momentum/Risk Pressure - Greenback Top Will Front Run a Yield Peak

Is Carry Driving the Returns of EM Currencies?

A Hump and a Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve

Rates 10y Dashboard: Does the Curve Flattening in Brazil Offer an Opportunity?

Alpha Bites: A DV01-Neutral 5s10s Steepener in Brazil

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Since the start of the pandemic, the Brazilian real (BRL) has lagged the broad universe of emerging market currencies but it has outperformed this year, narrowing the gap.</li>
<li>I expect BRL to continue outperforming as real rates should keep rising, the fiscal balance has improved, and there is a potential for a positive surprise on the election front.</li>
<li>The positive view on BRL is against other EM currencies, not the dollar. Also, the timing is critical because asset volatility should start picking up as the election approaches.</li>
</ul>


Since the start of the pandemic, the Brazilian real (BRL) has lagged the broad universe of emerging market currencies but it has outperformed this year, narrowing the gap.
I expect BRL to continue outperforming as real rates should keep rising, the fiscal balance has improved, and there is a potential for a positive surprise on the election front.
The positive view on BRL is against other EM currencies, not the dollar. Also, the timing is critical because asset volatility should start picking up as the election approaches.


Brazilian Real Set to Outperform Other EM Currencies in the Near Term