Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

FX Dashboard: Is It Time for Latin American Currencies to Turn Around?

FX Dashboard: Spillover Risk from China to EM FX

Alpha Bites: Long Chilean Peso Vs Short Australian Dollar

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

Rates 10y Dashboard: Brazil Rates Lag the Currency’s Rally

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

FX & Rates

<p>The Brazilian real (BRL) has by far been the best-performing EM currency since the end of March. In this note, we address the following questions:</p><ol>
<li>What is behind the rally?</li>
<li>If it continues, how much further can BRL run?</li>
<li>Is it worthwhile to go long the currency at these levels?</li>
</ol><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

The Brazilian real (BRL) has by far been the best-performing EM currency since the end of March. In this note, we address the following questions:
What is behind the rally?
If it continues, how much further can BRL run?
Is it worthwhile to go long the currency at these levels?
Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?