Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Brazilian Real Set to Outperform Other EM Currencies in the Near Term

Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?

Rates 10y Dashboard: Identifying Dislocations Among EM Rates as US Rates Sell Off

Rates 10y Dashboard: Does the Curve Flattening in Brazil Offer an Opportunity?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<p>In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate vs paying the 10-year rate in Brazil; more specifically, DI Jan 27 vs DI Jan 31. The rates curve in Brazil has been flattening on a combination of aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank and lowering of the risk premium on a better-than-expected fiscal performance. Given the risks ahead, primarily the likely increase in political uncertainty and the related fiscal slippage heading into next year's presidential election, the curve in Brazil offers an attractive entry point for a 5s10s steepener to express a bearish view.</p>

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate vs paying the 10-year rate in Brazil; more specifically, DI Jan 27 vs DI Jan 31. The rates curve in Brazil has been flattening on a combination of aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank and lowering of the risk premium on a better-than-expected fiscal performance. Given the risks ahead, primarily the likely increase in political uncertainty and the related fiscal slippage heading into next year's presidential election, the curve in Brazil offers an attractive entry point for a 5s10s steepener to express a bearish view.

Alpha Bites: A DV01-Neutral 5s10s Steepener in Brazil

BRL

Alpha Bites: A DV01-Neutral 5s10s Steepener in Brazil