India: Why Are Services Exports Not Rising?

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>For now Asian export upcycle continues, underpinned by buoyant global demand. We suspect though the best maybe behind and that Asian overseas shipments are set to moderate. We would hasten to add we are not expect the export upcycle to go into reverse. Intra-regional trade remains strong. We also expect China to ease monetary and fiscal policy substantially in 2019 to stimulate domestic demand and ward off the negative effects of the US-China trade war. This will help buffer regional exporters</p>

For now Asian export upcycle continues, underpinned by buoyant global demand. We suspect though the best maybe behind and that Asian overseas shipments are set to moderate. We would hasten to add we are not expect the export upcycle to go into reverse. Intra-regional trade remains strong. We also expect China to ease monetary and fiscal policy substantially in 2019 to stimulate domestic demand and ward off the negative effects of the US-China trade war. This will help buffer regional exporters

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (MXASJ INDEX)

Asian Exports - Rising But Set To Moderate