Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then?

Why Is Consensus So Wrong On The US Dollar?

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very rich. The OIS-Libor spread, the gold/silver ratio, the 10-year Treasury yield, volatility indices, debt ratios, valuations – everything, it seems, points to a massive market correction. However, we warn against the trap of looking for historical ‘rhymes’. There has been no historical precedent to today’s markets and, as a result, some of the market-charting devices used of old may well be worthless. </p><p>Economic growth and market performance do not coincide all that much but it is unusual for markets to collapse when economic growth is healthy, debt servicing ability is sound and the banking sector is without obvious weak points - subprime lending being the obvious factor in 2007. Our recession indicators are not flashing warning signals, the US is not a threat to global financial markets and the US economy shows no trouble ahead this year.</p>

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very rich. The OIS-Libor spread, the gold/silver ratio, the 10-year Treasury yield, volatility indices, debt ratios, valuations – everything, it seems, points to a massive market correction. However, we warn against the trap of looking for historical ‘rhymes’. There has been no historical precedent to today’s markets and, as a result, some of the market-charting devices used of old may well be worthless. Economic growth and market performance do not coincide all that much but it is unusual for markets to collapse when economic growth is healthy, debt servicing ability is sound and the banking sector is without obvious weak points - subprime lending being the obvious factor in 2007. Our recession indicators are not flashing warning signals, the US is not a threat to global financial markets and the US economy shows no trouble ahead this year.

A Fruitless Game: What History?