Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance reported strong growth in Q3, from the right sources</li>
<li>Improved sales mix &amp; progress on expense control lifted core margins</li>
<li>With 22% upside to US$9.5 based on 21x PER, our high conviction pick</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance reported strong growth in Q3, from the right sources
Improved sales mix &amp; progress on expense control lifted core margins
With 22% upside to US$9.5 based on 21x PER, our high conviction pick


2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

<ul>
<li>October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level</li>
<li>STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others</li>
<li>We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins</li>
</ul>


October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level
STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others
We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2</li>
<li>FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled</li>
<li>Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth</li>
</ul>


Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2
FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled
Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth


CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

<ul>
<li>Non-Core items boosted Q3 earnings, but core margins plunged vs Q2</li>
<li>In a surprise move, ZTO has abandoned its aggressive pursuit of share</li>
<li>Medium term growth is likely to slow, and pressure on margins remains</li>
</ul>


Non-Core items boosted Q3 earnings, but core margins plunged vs Q2
In a surprise move, ZTO has abandoned its aggressive pursuit of share
Medium term growth is likely to slow, and pressure on margins remains


ZTO Express Q3: Margins Plunge Vs Q2 | Abandons Pursuit of Share Gains | Is There a New Strategy?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.</li><li>While the full-year parcel volume growth guidance of 20-24% YoY is maintained, the 1.5ppt market share gain target is removed as ZTO chose to avoid unprofitable volume amid the price competition.</li><li>While we continue to like ZTO’s strong execution and cost advantage, we are incrementally concerned about a potential transformation of price competition to price war. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.While the full-year parcel volume growth guidance of 20-24% YoY is maintained, the 1.5ppt market share gain target is removed as ZTO chose to avoid unprofitable volume amid the price competition.While we continue to like ZTO’s strong execution and cost advantage, we are incrementally concerned about a potential transformation of price competition to price war. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Good Execution but Rising Concerns on Price Competition

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

In Q323 Full Truck Alliance reported strong revenue growth and impressive margin expansion compared to Q322. We believe the company's shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Good Execution but Rising Concerns on Price Competition

ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.

CMB International

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2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

In Q323 Full Truck Alliance reported strong revenue growth and impressive margin expansion compared to Q322. We believe the company's shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q3: Margins Plunge Vs Q2 | Abandons Pursuit of Share Gains | Is There a New Strategy?

ZTO has long employed a strategy of market share gains it uses to offset declining unit prices. Under current depressed market conditions, it has...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Good Execution but Rising Concerns on Price Competition

ZTO’s revenue/ net profit in 3Q23 came in at RMB9.08bn/ RMB2.35bn, up 1.5%/21% YoY, on the back of excellent cost control that offset the ASP decline.

CMB International