Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> is looking to raise between US$800m-US$1.03bn by selling 130.82m shares at a price range of HK$48-62/share. Between 30-39% of the shares will be taken by cornerstone investors.</li>
<li>The continued slide in its closest peers could put pressure on the stock post listing, though there could be some passive buying in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> could be added to the HSCI and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. Stock Connect could come online in December too.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (9863 HK) is looking to raise between US$800m-US$1.03bn by selling 130.82m shares at a price range of HK$48-62/share. Between 30-39% of the shares will be taken by cornerstone investors.
The continued slide in its closest peers could put pressure on the stock post listing, though there could be some passive buying in December.

Leapmotor (9863 HK) could be added to the HSCI and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Stock Connect could come online in December too.


Leapmotor (9863 HK) IPO - Stock Connect & Index Flows Could Provide Some Support

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-stuck-in-the-middle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80837" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle</a> , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK)  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.
In our previous insight Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Our base valuation of Leapmotor HKD 34.9 per share, which is 27% lower than the low end of the IPO price range of HKD 48 per share. </li>
<li>Given the steep downside of our target price (6-12 month period) relative to the IPO price range, we are Negative on  the Leapmotor IPO.</li>
<li>Leapmotor is selling 130.82 million shares in the IPO at a price range of HKD 48 to HKD 62 per share, scaling back the size of the IPO considerably. </li>
</ul>


Our base valuation of Leapmotor HKD 34.9 per share, which is 27% lower than the low end of the IPO price range of HKD 48 per share. 
Given the steep downside of our target price (6-12 month period) relative to the IPO price range, we are Negative on  the Leapmotor IPO.
Leapmotor is selling 130.82 million shares in the IPO at a price range of HKD 48 to HKD 62 per share, scaling back the size of the IPO considerably. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a> is a leading smart EV company in China that designs and builds EVs. The company develops key hardware, software and all electronic components of the vehicles internally.</li>
<li>The company has filed for an IPO on the HKEx and plans to raise about US$1bn through the IPO.</li>
<li>In this insight, we analyse the company’s financials to understand the key reason behind the absence of gross profit margins compared to other players in the market.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK) is a leading smart EV company in China that designs and builds EVs. The company develops key hardware, software and all electronic components of the vehicles internally.
The company has filed for an IPO on the HKEx and plans to raise about US$1bn through the IPO.
In this insight, we analyse the company’s financials to understand the key reason behind the absence of gross profit margins compared to other players in the market.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a> has launched its HKEx listing at HK$48.00-62.00 per share to raise up to US$1.0 billion. Books are open from 20 to 23 September.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79449" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79536" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-look-before-you-leap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79904" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: Look Before You Leap</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80089" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: Valuation First-Look</a></strong></em>. </li>
<li>Leapmotor, at best, should trade in line with median peer multiples. Leapmotor is fairly valued at the low end of the IPO price range. We pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK) has launched its HKEx listing at HK$48.00-62.00 per share to raise up to US$1.0 billion. Books are open from 20 to 23 September.
We previously discussed the IPO in Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case, Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case, Leapmotor IPO: Look Before You Leap, Leapmotor IPO: Valuation First-Look. 
Leapmotor, at best, should trade in line with median peer multiples. Leapmotor is fairly valued at the low end of the IPO price range. We pass on the IPO.


China

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies Ltd. operates as an electric vehicles manufacturer. The Company develops and sells electric vehicles and other products. Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies markets its products throughout China.

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Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)

Leapmotor (9863 HK) IPO - Stock Connect & Index Flows Could Provide Some Support

Leapmotor is expected to list on 29 September. Poor peer performance could be a dampener, while passive HSTECH inflows and Southbound Stock Connect...

Brian Freitas

Leapmotor IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Based on our revenue forecasts using expected EV deliveries, we think Leapmotor's IPO is overvalued and is not even attractive at the lower end....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Leapmotor IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base valuation of Leapmotor HKD 34.9 per share, which is 27% lower than the low end of the IPO price range of HKD 48 per share.

Douglas Kim

Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle

Our analysis reveals that the company's pricing strategy has helped expand its EV sales volume but at the cost of its margins. Moving into high-end...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Leapmotor IPO: Valuation Insights

Leapmotor, at best, should trade in line with median peer multiples. Leapmotor is fairly valued at the low end of the IPO price range. We pass on...

Arun George

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