Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technologie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.</li>
<li>Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. We view Leapmotor’s 3Q25 vehicle gross margin of 13.3% as resilient, although its net profit of RMB150mn missed our expectation due to lowerthan-expected other revenue.</li><li>We believe Leapmotor could accomplish both of its sales volume and net profit targets in FY25E, and expect its strong sales momentum to continue throughout FY26E.</li><li>We project its overseas sales volume to more than double YoY in FY26E while domestic sales could be fuelled by two A-series and two D-series models. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. We view Leapmotor’s 3Q25 vehicle gross margin of 13.3% as resilient, although its net profit of RMB150mn missed our expectation due to lowerthan-expected other revenue.We believe Leapmotor could accomplish both of its sales volume and net profit targets in FY25E, and expect its strong sales momentum to continue throughout FY26E.We project its overseas sales volume to more than double YoY in FY26E while domestic sales could be fuelled by two A-series and two D-series models. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leapmotor (9863 HK) - 4Q25 NP to Be More Resilient; D19 Key to FY26E

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>Depending on the stocks included in the universe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> could be deleted and that could lead to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technologie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)</a>'s inclusion. </li>
<li>If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)'s inclusion. 
If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. 
NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. 


2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>HK$77bn/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$88bn the week before, HK$100+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down.</li>
<li>Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could re-up the pace .</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


HK$77bn/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$88bn the week before, HK$100+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down.
Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could re-up the pace .
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2Wks To 5 Dec 2025) - Lower Activity, Lower Nets, BABA Still Bought

China

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies Ltd. operates as an electric vehicles manufacturer. The Company develops and sells electric vehicles and other products. Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies markets its products throughout China.

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Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

Leapmotor will replace ASMPT in the HSTECH at the close on 5 Dec. Given the lack of certainty about the change, both stocks appear under positioned...

Brian Freitas

Leapmotor (9863 HK) - 4Q25 NP to Be More Resilient; D19 Key to FY26E

We view Leapmotor’s 3Q25 vehicle gross margin of 13.3% as resilient, although its net profit of RMB150mn missed our expectation due to lowerthan...

CMB International

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Leapmotor could be added to the HSTECH in Dec, replacing ASMPT - it's a close call. Impact on the stocks is pretty big. Even with no stock changes,...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

4Q deliveries guidance was below expectations, and the sales momentum is declining. Breakeven targets are likely to be pushed out. The valuation is...

Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2Wks To 5 Dec 2025) - Lower Activity, Lower Nets, BABA Still Bought

SOUTHBOUND volumes and net are winding down - lower consecutively, but nets still positive - into year-end. I await RMB Counters in Southbound. SB...

Travis Lundy

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