China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZaiLab reported C4Q22 top line 3% above our estimate. Operating profit was worse than our estimate and consensus while net income was better mainly due to government grant; </li>
<li>We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support.</li>
<li>As a result, ZLAB’s pipeline needs to be heavily discounted; We maintain our SELL and cut TP from US$30 to US$25.</li>
</ul>


ZaiLab reported C4Q22 top line 3% above our estimate. Operating profit was worse than our estimate and consensus while net income was better mainly due to government grant; 
We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support.
As a result, ZLAB’s pipeline needs to be heavily discounted; We maintain our SELL and cut TP from US$30 to US$25.


[Zai LAB (ZLAB US) Earnings Review]: Pretty Much the Same…Maintain SELL

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ZLAB: Merck's Keytruda received repeated setbacks on treating prostate cancer, but the result cannot benefit ZLAB(/)</li>
<li>9995HK: RemeGen preannounced 2022 results, which is slightly better than our estimate</li>
<li>1877HK: JUNSHI preannounced 2022 result, which was worse than we expected</li>
</ul>


ZLAB: Merck's Keytruda received repeated setbacks on treating prostate cancer, but the result cannot benefit ZLAB(/)
9995HK: RemeGen preannounced 2022 results, which is slightly better than our estimate
1877HK: JUNSHI preannounced 2022 result, which was worse than we expected


China TME Update (Mar.2) - ZLAB; 9995HK;1877HK

<ul>
<li>ZaiLab and NovoCure (NVCR US, NR) surged on positive readout of Optune’s Phase III on Non-Small-Cell-Lung Cancer (NSCLC), a major indication win after the smaller ones in Glioblastoma and Mesothelioma.</li>
<li>We, however, caution that the readout is largely expected and Optune faces uncertainty in commercialization both globally and in China;</li>
<li>We raise TP to US$35 to reflect possible readouts in other cancer types</li>
</ul>


ZaiLab and NovoCure (NVCR US, NR) surged on positive readout of Optune’s Phase III on Non-Small-Cell-Lung Cancer (NSCLC), a major indication win after the smaller ones in Glioblastoma and Mesothelioma.
We, however, caution that the readout is largely expected and Optune faces uncertainty in commercialization both globally and in China;
We raise TP to US$35 to reflect possible readouts in other cancer types


Zai LAB (ZLAB.US/9688.HK)：TTF Is Not a Done Deal, Both China and Globally

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>China further optimized COVID policy. The main reason to ease the policy at this time could be to release risks in advance so as to recover as soon as possible.</li>
<li>The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We analyzed three situations to help investors better understand “the new story” of Biotech at different stages.</li>
<li>We reviewed the performance of Company listed under HKEX Chapter 18A since this year. We found some interesting points worth the attention.</li>
</ul>


China further optimized COVID policy. The main reason to ease the policy at this time could be to release risks in advance so as to recover as soon as possible.
The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We analyzed three situations to help investors better understand “the new story” of Biotech at different stages.
We reviewed the performance of Company listed under HKEX Chapter 18A since this year. We found some interesting points worth the attention.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.9) - COVID Policy Update, Biotech Growth Curve, HKEX Chapter 18A Review

<ul>
<li>Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. </li>
<li>If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.</li>
<li>Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.</li>
</ul>


Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. 
If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.
Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US) Earnings Review]: Pretty Much the Same…Maintain SELL

We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support. As a result,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TME Update (Mar.2) - ZLAB; 9995HK;1877HK

ZLAB: Merck's Keytruda received repeated setbacks on treating prostate cancer, but the result cannot benefit ZLAB(/); 9995HK: RemeGen preannounced...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zai LAB (ZLAB.US/9688.HK)：TTF Is Not a Done Deal, Both China and Globally

ZaiLab and NovoCure surged on positive readout of Optune’s Phase III on Non-Small-Cell-Lung Cancer (NSCLC). We, however, caution that Optune faces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.9) - COVID Policy Update, Biotech Growth Curve, HKEX Chapter 18A Review

China further optimized COVID policy, so as to release risks in advance and recover ASAP. The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We reviewed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Orthopedics VBP result was released,we analyzed the impact on companies; There will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots; There're hidden...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)