Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)</li>
<li>ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)</li>
<li>2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)</li>
</ul>


ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)
ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)
2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Leading Chinese biotech firms are among the few sub-sectors sustaining rapid growth. However, RemeGen stands as a negative example, with its business model and investment rationale proving flawed.</li>
<li>“Increasing revenue without increasing profits” is actually a “denial” of a company's business model. Even though the losses decreased in 24H1, this doesn’t change our negative expectations for Zai Lab.</li>
<li>Genor Biopharma and Edding Group are merging through a reverse takeover, benefiting both companies by boosting Genor's valuation and allowing Edding to achieve its goal of going public.</li>
</ul>


Leading Chinese biotech firms are among the few sub-sectors sustaining rapid growth. However, RemeGen stands as a negative example, with its business model and investment rationale proving flawed.
“Increasing revenue without increasing profits” is actually a “denial” of a company's business model. Even though the losses decreased in 24H1, this doesn’t change our negative expectations for Zai Lab.
Genor Biopharma and Edding Group are merging through a reverse takeover, benefiting both companies by boosting Genor's valuation and allowing Edding to achieve its goal of going public.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13)-Genor to Acquire Edding, RemeGen's Bleak Outlook, Zai Lab's Trouble

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd-94df40cf-c15e-462f-b3de-8d2d434ae935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36261:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab (9688 HK)</a> recorded Vyvgart revenue of $10M, $13M, and $23M in 4Q23, 1Q24, and 2Q24, respectively. The company raised 2024 Vyvgart revenue guidance to $80M from $70M earlier.</li>
<li>Despite strong momentum from Vyvgart, Zai Lab still has a lot of pain points. Decelerating revenue growth from Zejula is one of them.</li>
<li>Due to its in-licensing business model, Zai Lab has lower gross profit margin of 64–65%, compared with ~80% for a typical innovator biotech company.</li>
</ul>



Zai Lab (9688 HK) recorded Vyvgart revenue of $10M, $13M, and $23M in 4Q23, 1Q24, and 2Q24, respectively. The company raised 2024 Vyvgart revenue guidance to $80M from $70M earlier.
Despite strong momentum from Vyvgart, Zai Lab still has a lot of pain points. Decelerating revenue growth from Zejula is one of them.
Due to its in-licensing business model, Zai Lab has lower gross profit margin of 64–65%, compared with ~80% for a typical innovator biotech company.


Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.</li>
<li>The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.</li>
<li>There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.
The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.
There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

<ul>
<li>9926 HK/1801 HK/ BGNE US/9995 HK: US Biosecure Act extended Chinese CXO collaboration until 2032  (+/+/+/+)</li>
<li>BGNE US :BeiGene’s performance in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, especially benefiting from overseas BRUKINSA(/)</li>
<li>ZLAB US:Zai Lab's revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to Efgartigimod.(/)</li>
</ul>


9926 HK/1801 HK/ BGNE US/9995 HK: US Biosecure Act extended Chinese CXO collaboration until 2032  (+/+/+/+)
BGNE US :BeiGene’s performance in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, especially benefiting from overseas BRUKINSA(/)
ZLAB US:Zai Lab's revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to Efgartigimod.(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926 HK/1801HK/ BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB/NIO/LI/1211HK/BEKE/1810HK/3888HK/981HK/MSFT/INTC

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

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Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13)-Genor to Acquire Edding, RemeGen's Bleak Outlook, Zai Lab's Trouble

Genor/Edding are merging through a reverse takeover, but valuation is unsatisfactory. Remegen is negative example among China Biotech.Weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

Zai Lab's Vyvgart revenue sees significant growth, but challenges remain with decelerating Zejula revenue and lower gross profit margins due to in...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926 HK/1801HK/ BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB/NIO/LI/1211HK/BEKE/1810HK/3888HK/981HK/MSFT/INTC

US Biosecure Act extends Chinese collaboration until 2032, BeiGene and Zai Lab exceed Q1 expectations with BRUKINSA and Efgartigimod.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

​ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13)-Genor to Acquire Edding, RemeGen's Bleak Outlook, Zai Lab's Trouble

Genor/Edding are merging through a reverse takeover, but valuation is unsatisfactory. Remegen is negative example among China Biotech.Weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

​Zai Lab's Vyvgart revenue sees significant growth, but challenges remain with decelerating Zejula revenue and lower gross profit margins due to in...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

​Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926 HK/1801HK/ BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB/NIO/LI/1211HK/BEKE/1810HK/3888HK/981HK/MSFT/INTC

​US Biosecure Act extends Chinese collaboration until 2032, BeiGene and Zai Lab exceed Q1 expectations with BRUKINSA and Efgartigimod.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Zai Lab's Vyvgart revenue sees significant growth, but challenges remain with decelerating Zejula revenue and lower gross profit margins due to in...

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

US Biosecure Act extends Chinese collaboration until 2032, BeiGene and Zai Lab exceed Q1 expectations with BRUKINSA and Efgartigimod.