IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.</li>
<li>SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   </li>
<li>The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, is premarketing an H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion, according to press reports.
SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia and the fourth largest player globally in terms of revenue in 2023, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   
The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a premium multiple to peers is justified.


SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Markets go risk-on with the Fed's 50 bps cut a greenlight for AI/tech favourites to rebound sharply.</li>
<li>New highs for homebuilders setting the tone for further gains the Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House, while logistics may be weak after FedEx numbers.</li>
<li>Worth noting out-of-favour JP autos with high short interests and US sales ratios who may be squeeze targets with undeployed capital and foreigners coming back to the Japanese market post-Fed.</li>
</ul>


Markets go risk-on with the Fed's 50 bps cut a greenlight for AI/tech favourites to rebound sharply.
New highs for homebuilders setting the tone for further gains the Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House, while logistics may be weak after FedEx numbers.
Worth noting out-of-favour JP autos with high short interests and US sales ratios who may be squeeze targets with undeployed capital and foreigners coming back to the Japanese market post-Fed.


Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a> recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY10,300, a 40.5% and 42.9% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. </li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the midpoint of the IFA’s DCF valuation range and implies multiples below precedent transaction multiples. </li>
<li>While the Dalton irrevocable has a counteroffer clause, Mr Takebe (the largest shareholder) does not. Therefore, there is a low probability of a competing bidder emerging.   </li>
</ul>



Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP) recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY10,300, a 40.5% and 42.9% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the midpoint of the IFA’s DCF valuation range and implies multiples below precedent transaction multiples. 
While the Dalton irrevocable has a counteroffer clause, Mr Takebe (the largest shareholder) does not. Therefore, there is a low probability of a competing bidder emerging.   


Trancom (9058 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY10,300

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a></strong>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> subsidiary at JPY5,774, 32.7% and 69.8% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. </li>
<li>The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, China, the EU, South Korea and Vietnam. The tender offer is expected to start in mid-August.</li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high and is a knockout bid. While the timing of regulatory approvals is a risk, the transaction is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Alps Logistics (9055 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from a KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) subsidiary at JPY5,774, 32.7% and 69.8% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, China, the EU, South Korea and Vietnam. The tender offer is expected to start in mid-August.
The offer represents an all-time high and is a knockout bid. While the timing of regulatory approvals is a risk, the transaction is a done deal. 


Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets

Markets go risk-on with AI/tech favorites rebounding sharply, homebuilders hitting new highs, JP autos with high short interests and US sales...

Andrew Jackson

Trancom (9058 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY10,300

The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the IFA’s midpoint DCF valuation and implies multiples below precedent transaction...

Arun George

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

The precondition has been satisfied (Vietnam regulatory approval has been waived). The tender period is from 22 Aug to 4 Oct (30 business days),...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SF Holding H Share Listing: Updates Point to Improving Fundamentals

The PHIP update shows that the business is in good health, with a return to growth, rising margins, and strong cash generation. Therefore, a...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets

Markets go risk-on with AI/tech favorites rebounding sharply, homebuilders hitting new highs, JP autos with high short interests and US sales...

Andrew Jackson

Trancom (9058 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY10,300

The offer represents an all-time high but is lower than the IFA’s midpoint DCF valuation and implies multiples below precedent transaction...

Arun George

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Alps Logistics (9055 JP): KKR’s Knockout Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY5,774

The precondition has been satisfied (Vietnam regulatory approval has been waived). The tender period is from 22 Aug to 4 Oct (30 business days),...

Arun George