Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.</li>
<li>Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.</li>
<li>For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.</li>
</ul>


The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.
Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.
For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.


Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L</li>
<li>We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats</li>
<li>We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management</li>
</ul>


How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L
We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats
We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

<ul>
<li>After analyzing J&amp;T's Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company's 'Others' segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics</li>
<li>Compared to China and SE Asia, J&amp;T's New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term</li>
<li>We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&amp;T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&amp;T's EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)</li>
</ul>


After analyzing J&amp;T's Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company's 'Others' segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics
Compared to China and SE Asia, J&amp;T's New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term
We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&amp;T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&amp;T's EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

<ul>
<li>Business model: how does CaiNiao get paid, and by whom, and for what?</li>
<li>Key relationships with parent Alibaba and with China's listed express companies</li>
<li>Differentiators: what makes CaiNiao different from other e-comm logistics names?</li>
</ul>


Business model: how does CaiNiao get paid, and by whom, and for what?
Key relationships with parent Alibaba and with China's listed express companies
Differentiators: what makes CaiNiao different from other e-comm logistics names?


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...

Michael Causton

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

In this insight we scrutinize CaiNiao's financial statements, analyze the few operating statistics the company provided in its prospectus, and...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

We're pulling this note out of the archives in light of J&T’s updated HKEX filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO this week....

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators

In this insight we look at CaiNiao's busines model, its relationships with Alibaba and the express companies, and the ways in which it...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

​The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...

Michael Causton

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

In this insight we scrutinize CaiNiao's financial statements, analyze the few operating statistics the company provided in its prospectus, and...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

We're pulling this note out of the archives in light of J&T’s updated HKEX filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO this week....

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators

In this insight we look at CaiNiao's busines model, its relationships with Alibaba and the express companies, and the ways in which it...

Tracking Traffic

The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...