Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.</p>

We believe that JOYY (YY US) is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  Baidu (BIDU US)  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of Baidu (BIDU US) ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>.</p></div><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, Zhihu will have a fully diluted market cap of $6.2 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Tencent and Lilith Games. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds including the concurrent private placement are $801.3 million. </p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO. </p></div></div>

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Baidu (BIDU US).At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, Zhihu will have a fully diluted market cap of $6.2 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to Alibaba Group (BABA US), JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Tencent and Lilith Games. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds including the concurrent private placement are $801.3 million. In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO. 

Forensic Accounting

<p style="text-align: justify;">Muddy Waters’ short selling report on YY is technically detailed and logical.  It showcases its team’s cyber capability to collect user activity data and analyze them.  While the report is credible, we believe that the data used to make its arguments are snapshots of activities during specific periods (i.e. during the annual <em>talent show</em> from November 2019 to January 2020). The lack of a continuum has created biases, and ultimately results in an inappropriate conclusion that YY is 90% fraudulent.  Our due diligence primarily involves speaking with the agencies that have helped to build the YY video streaming business, leads us to conclude that YY Live is “mostly” real.  It is a massively lucrative cash machine monetizing on fandom-ship and virtual relationships among individuals across China. While the virtual gifting phenomenon is difficult for certain American investors to comprehend, it is prevalent in China. </p>

Muddy Waters’ short selling report on YY is technically detailed and logical.  It showcases its team’s cyber capability to collect user activity data and analyze them.  While the report is credible, we believe that the data used to make its arguments are snapshots of activities during specific periods (i.e. during the annual talent show from November 2019 to January 2020). The lack of a continuum has created biases, and ultimately results in an inappropriate conclusion that YY is 90% fraudulent.  Our due diligence primarily involves speaking with the agencies that have helped to build the YY video streaming business, leads us to conclude that YY Live is “mostly” real.  It is a massively lucrative cash machine monetizing on fandom-ship and virtual relationships among individuals across China. While the virtual gifting phenomenon is difficult for certain American investors to comprehend, it is prevalent in China. 

YY Due Diligence Suggesting a Lucrative Cash Machine with Unique Ecosystem

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yalla-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29286:1" rel="noopener">Yalla Group Ltd (YALA US)</a> is the largest voice-centric social networking and entertainment platform in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with about 12.5m monthly active users. The company filed for an IPO on the on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "YALA" and intends to raise about $130-167m via a primary offering of 18.6m Yalla Group ADS at $7-9 per ADS- each ADS represents one Class A ordinary share.</li>
<li>One of the existing shareholders, Orchid Asia has already expressed interest in purchasing up to U$30 million of the ADS offered in the IPO.</li>
<li>An overallotment option, if exercised, could increase the IPO by $19.5-25.1m.</li>
</ul>



Yalla Group Ltd (YALA US) is the largest voice-centric social networking and entertainment platform in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with about 12.5m monthly active users. The company filed for an IPO on the on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "YALA" and intends to raise about $130-167m via a primary offering of 18.6m Yalla Group ADS at $7-9 per ADS- each ADS represents one Class A ordinary share.
One of the existing shareholders, Orchid Asia has already expressed interest in purchasing up to U$30 million of the ADS offered in the IPO.
An overallotment option, if exercised, could increase the IPO by $19.5-25.1m.


<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yalla-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29286:1" rel="noopener">Yalla Group Ltd (YALA US)</a> is the largest voice-centric social networking and entertainment platform in MENA as measured by revenue in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Yalla has launched its IPO at a price range of $7.00-9.00 per ADS. Existing shareholder, Orchid Asia, has indicated an interest in purchasing up to $30 million of the ADSs in the offering. Yalla will raise net proceeds of $135.4 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yalla-group-ipo-initiation-eat-pray-chat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that Yalla has appealing fundamentals as it offers breakneck revenue growth with high margins and strong cash generation. Overall, we would be inclined to participate in the IPO at the proposed price range.</p></div></div></div>

Yalla Group Ltd (YALA US) is the largest voice-centric social networking and entertainment platform in MENA as measured by revenue in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Yalla has launched its IPO at a price range of $7.00-9.00 per ADS. Existing shareholder, Orchid Asia, has indicated an interest in purchasing up to $30 million of the ADSs in the offering. Yalla will raise net proceeds of $135.4 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. In our initiation note, we stated that Yalla has appealing fundamentals as it offers breakneck revenue growth with high margins and strong cash generation. Overall, we would be inclined to participate in the IPO at the proposed price range.

United Arab Emirates

Yalla Group Limited provides software solutions. The Company offers platform for online social networking and entertainment activities. Yalla Group serves customers in United Arab Emirates.

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Yalla Group Ltd (YALA US)

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

YY to broadcaster on May 21: “YY and Baidu live streaming channels will start sharing data. We asked our live broadcasters to welcome the new...

JL Warren Capital

Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights

At the mid-point of the $9.50-11.50 IPO price range, Zhihu's net proceeds inc. the concurrent private placement is $801.3 million. Our valuation...

Arun George

YY Due Diligence Suggesting a Lucrative Cash Machine with Unique Ecosystem

YY's live streaming is a massively lucrative cash machine monetizing on fandom-ship and virtual relationships among individuals across China.

JL Warren Capital

Yalla Group IPO Valuation

Yalla Group Ltd (YALA US) is the largest voice-centric social networking and entertainment platform in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yalla Group IPO: Valuation Insights

Chindata (CD US) is a data centre operator which is backed by Bain Capital (57.17% shareholder), APG Strategic Real Estate Pool/Dutch pension...

Arun George

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