JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Investment Advisors

Joyy’s Potential Privatisation by Top Two Shareholders

[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

[YY US]: Maintain SELL for Cost Rebound and Competition

Buy YY on Overseas Live Stream Land Grabs

YY Due Diligence Suggesting a Lucrative Cash Machine with Unique Ecosystem

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.</p>

We believe that JOYY (YY US) is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  Baidu (BIDU US)  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of Baidu (BIDU US) ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY