China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>In the past few months, China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly.  BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However, Tesla might put new pressure on their up trend very soon. </strong></p><p><strong>Local produced Model Y might be launched in November at the earliest, which might put huge pressure on NIO (NIO.US) and Li Auto's (LI.US) sales in short term. </strong></p><p><strong>Model 3 sales price has been cut again and getting close to its Chinese competitor models. BYD Han might be under pressure. However, Xpeng (XPEV.US), who's P7 is directly competing with Model 3, has shown  capability of overcoming Model's price cut pressure. </strong></p><p><strong>We believe XPEV is better positioned to overcome new threats from Tesla in near term.</strong></p><p><strong> </strong></p>

In the past few months, China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly.  BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However, Tesla might put new pressure on their up trend very soon. Local produced Model Y might be launched in November at the earliest, which might put huge pressure on NIO (NIO.US) and Li Auto's (LI.US) sales in short term. Model 3 sales price has been cut again and getting close to its Chinese competitor models. BYD Han might be under pressure. However, Xpeng (XPEV.US), who's P7 is directly competing with Model 3, has shown  capability of overcoming Model's price cut pressure. We believe XPEV is better positioned to overcome new threats from Tesla in near term. 

China EV:  New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US)</a> raised about US$608m at US$20 per ADS, above the top-end of the initial price range.</p>
<p>MINISO is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable. It operates its flagship brand “MINISO” and has a global presence with about 2,500 stores in China and over 1,680 stores across 80 other countries. </p>
<p>We have earlier covered various aspects of the IPO in:</p>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-pre-ipo-store-walkthrough-co-branding-allows-for-stronger-pricing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43821" rel="noopener">MINISO (名创优品) Pre-IPO - Store Walkthrough - Co-Branding Allows for Stronger Pricing</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-pre-ipo-asset-light-and-fairly-resilient-despite-covid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43623" rel="noopener">MINISO (名创优品) Pre-IPO - Asset-Light and Fairly Resilient Despite COVID</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-ipo-reasonable-towards-the-low-end" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43988" rel="noopener">MINISO (名创优品) IPO - Reasonable Towards the Low-End</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.</p>
</div>

MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US) raised about US$608m at US$20 per ADS, above the top-end of the initial price range.
MINISO is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable. It operates its flagship brand “MINISO” and has a global presence with about 2,500 stores in China and over 1,680 stores across 80 other countries. 
We have earlier covered various aspects of the IPO in:



MINISO (名创优品) Pre-IPO - Store Walkthrough - Co-Branding Allows for Stronger Pricing 

MINISO (名创优品) Pre-IPO - Asset-Light and Fairly Resilient Despite COVID 

MINISO (名创优品) IPO - Reasonable Towards the Low-End 

In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.


MINISO (名创优品) IPO Trading - Not Much Value Left After Pricing Above Range

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

<div>With only 40+ days left before the Presidential Election in the U.S, China is wisely taking a laissez faire approach to the bilateral issues and conflicts, waiting Trump out until after November. However, Beijing understands the White House’s targeting at China enjoys bipartisan support at this moment, one of the few exceptions of today’s politics in the U.S.</div>

With only 40+ days left before the Presidential Election in the U.S, China is wisely taking a laissez faire approach to the bilateral issues and conflicts, waiting Trump out until after November. However, Beijing understands the White House’s targeting at China enjoys bipartisan support at this moment, one of the few exceptions of today’s politics in the U.S.

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2>
<ul>
<li>Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm </li>
<li>Stay home, stay safe, spend more</li>
<li>Sell those exports like imports </li>
<li>Chinese firms choose own capital markets</li>
<li>Roaring (quietly) once more, electric vehicles excite China </li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm 
Stay home, stay safe, spend more
Sell those exports like imports 
Chinese firms choose own capital markets
Roaring (quietly) once more, electric vehicles excite China 


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>Tesla was not included in the S&amp;P 500 in its latest revision with the S&amp;P committee instead choosing to include the much smaller Etsy, Teradyne and Catalent. In addition, the company was the subject of a less than flattering review of its Full Self-Driving functionality by Consumer Reports. A review whose implications were underlined by an accident in China on Saturday where two people were killed and six injured with a Tesla driven by a 51-year-old woman involved. Downside risks are starting to accumulate here.</p>

Tesla was not included in the S&amp;P 500 in its latest revision with the S&amp;P committee instead choosing to include the much smaller Etsy, Teradyne and Catalent. In addition, the company was the subject of a less than flattering review of its Full Self-Driving functionality by Consumer Reports. A review whose implications were underlined by an accident in China on Saturday where two people were killed and six injured with a Tesla driven by a 51-year-old woman involved. Downside risks are starting to accumulate here.

Tesla – Fully Self-Driven, but Badly And Not Into the S&P

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

XPeng (XPEV US)

China EV: New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly. BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However,...

Victoria Li

MINISO (名创优品) IPO Trading - Not Much Value Left After Pricing Above Range

MINISO is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable. There isn't much value...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

China Macro and Geopolitical Briefing

With only 40+ days left before the Presidential Election in the U.S, China is wisely taking a laissez faire approach to the bilateral issues and...

JL Warren Capital

Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

China News That Matters

Diana Choyleva

Tesla – Fully Self-Driven, but Badly And Not Into the S&P

Tesla was not included in the S&P 500 in its latest revision with the S&P committee instead choosing to include the much smaller Etsy,...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)