China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We recently conducted a round of interviews of several major Chinese online advertising agencies. We conclude that there has been slower-than-expected recovery in February.</li>
<li>Among major advertisers, travel, local service, medical service, and eCommerce have better performances. Gaming, automobile, and FMCG remain weak.</li>
<li>Tencent is still our top pick; maintain BUY to Baidu and Weibo; SELL to Kuaishou and BILI</li>
</ul>


We recently conducted a round of interviews of several major Chinese online advertising agencies. We conclude that there has been slower-than-expected recovery in February.
Among major advertisers, travel, local service, medical service, and eCommerce have better performances. Gaming, automobile, and FMCG remain weak.
Tencent is still our top pick; maintain BUY to Baidu and Weibo; SELL to Kuaishou and BILI


Tencent, Baidu, Weibo, Kuaishou and Bili: Online Ads Show Slow Recovery Trend

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weibo’s 4Q22 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 34%/46%, due to reverse of a contingent payment agreement with Jiamian Tech. </li>
<li>While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound due to the recovery of offline promotion events.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Weibo’s 4Q22 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 34%/46%, due to reverse of a contingent payment agreement with Jiamian Tech. 
While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound due to the recovery of offline promotion events.
Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE in 2023.


[Weibo (WB US) Earnings Review]: Maintain BUY for Ads Recovery in Coming Quarters

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Weibo reported 4Q22 financial results on 1 Mar. 4Q22 total revenue declined by 27% YoY (-20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$448mn, in line with our and consensus estimate.</li><li>FY22 total revenue was down by 19% YoY to US$1.8bn, mainly due to macro headwind and COVID-19 impact.</li><li>4Q22 nonGAAP net income dropped by 9% YoY to US$179mn, beating the consensus estimate of US$122mn, primarily due to effective expense control and reversal of US$58.8mn compensation expenses. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Weibo reported 4Q22 financial results on 1 Mar. 4Q22 total revenue declined by 27% YoY (-20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$448mn, in line with our and consensus estimate.FY22 total revenue was down by 19% YoY to US$1.8bn, mainly due to macro headwind and COVID-19 impact.4Q22 nonGAAP net income dropped by 9% YoY to US$179mn, beating the consensus estimate of US$122mn, primarily due to effective expense control and reversal of US$58.8mn compensation expenses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) – Gradual revenue and margin recovery in FY23

<ul>
<li>[Daily 1]    3690HK：Meituan is testing short video and live streaming function for food delivery (+);  [Daily 2]   PDD: Shein is to launch its online marketplace in the US(-) </li>
<li>[Daily 3]    700HK/WB：WeChat official account makes key updates on image formatting（+/-）</li>
<li>[Daily 4]    700HK:Supercell 2022 topline down 6% YoY with several challenges(-)</li>
</ul>


[Daily 1]    3690HK：Meituan is testing short video and live streaming function for food delivery (+);  [Daily 2]   PDD: Shein is to launch its online marketplace in the US(-) 
[Daily 3]    700HK/WB：WeChat official account makes key updates on image formatting（+/-）
[Daily 4]    700HK:Supercell 2022 topline down 6% YoY with several challenges(-)


China TMT Update (Feb.17) - Meituan, PDD, Shein, Tencent, WB - Meituan Is Testing Short Video

<ul>
<li>We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary disturbance caused by reopening. </li>
<li>We remain optimistic about Weibo’s rebound in 1H23 as the macro improves, with top line/bottom line beating cons. by 2.2%/5.5% in 2023.</li>
<li>Reiterate BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 26.9, implying 11.7X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary disturbance caused by reopening. 
We remain optimistic about Weibo’s rebound in 1H23 as the macro improves, with top line/bottom line beating cons. by 2.2%/5.5% in 2023.
Reiterate BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 26.9, implying 11.7X PE in 2023.


[Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Weibo Corp (WB US)

Tencent, Baidu, Weibo, Kuaishou and Bili: Online Ads Show Slow Recovery Trend

We recently conducted a round of interviews of several major Chinese online advertising agencies. We conclude that there has been slower-than...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Weibo (WB US) Earnings Review]: Maintain BUY for Ads Recovery in Coming Quarters

While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound. Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Gradual revenue and margin recovery in FY23

Weibo reported 4Q22 financial results on 1 Mar. 4Q22 total revenue declined by 27% YoY (-20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$448mn, in line...

CMB International

China TMT Update (Feb.17) - Meituan, PDD, Shein, Tencent, WB - Meituan Is Testing Short Video

Meituan is testing short video and live streaming function for food delivery (+); PDD: Shein is to launch its online marketplace in the US(-);

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY

We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)