External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of COVID in Dec 2022.</li><li>Hence, we lower FY22/4Q22E total revenue forecast by 1/4%. Market now looks ahead to recovery potential in online ads demand, driven by China’s reopening and consumption recovery.</li><li>The speed of economic activities recovery post Chinese New Year is ahead of our previous expectation, which should support Weibo’s revenue recovery in FY23E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of COVID in Dec 2022.Hence, we lower FY22/4Q22E total revenue forecast by 1/4%. Market now looks ahead to recovery potential in online ads demand, driven by China’s reopening and consumption recovery.The speed of economic activities recovery post Chinese New Year is ahead of our previous expectation, which should support Weibo’s revenue recovery in FY23E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) – Recovery on the horizon despite ST pressure

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.</li>
<li>We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.</li>
<li>We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.</li>
</ul>


We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.


China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

<ul><li>Weibo reported its 3Q22 results on 17 Nov. 3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.</li><li>9M22 revenue declined by 15% YoY, as the macro headwind and resurgence of COVID-19 weigh on ad demand.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income dropped by 43% YoY to US$119mn, in line with consensus estimate of US$120mn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo reported its 3Q22 results on 17 Nov. 3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.9M22 revenue declined by 15% YoY, as the macro headwind and resurgence of COVID-19 weigh on ad demand.Non-GAAP net income dropped by 43% YoY to US$119mn, in line with consensus estimate of US$120mn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) – Ongoing moderate recovery

<ul><li>For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.</li><li>Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.</li><li>Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

Weibo (WB US) – Recovery on the horizon despite ST pressure

Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of...

CMB International

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Ongoing moderate recovery

3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weibo (WB US) – Recovery on the horizon despite ST pressure

Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of...

CMB International

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Ongoing moderate recovery

3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.

CMB International

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and...

CMB International