IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

EBeauty Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebeauty-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33505:1" rel="noopener">EBeauty Holdings (1894926D HK)</a> is the largest beauty brand e-commerce enablement service provider by GMV (gross merchandise value) facilitated or generated in China, with a market share of 13.3% in 2020, according to iResearch. eBeauty primarily executes the branding and marketing strategies that the brand partners have designed, operating their official online stores, while in some cases it provides marketing strategy advisory to brand partners to help them formulate their marketing strategies.eBeauty is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $600 million, according to press reports. The shareholders include Genesis Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> and Mass Ave Global.eBeauty is a play on the rising complexity of China’s beauty e-commerce industry which has resulted in more brands out-sourcing their e-commerce operations to specialized brand e-commerce enablement service providers (such as eBeauty). The beauty e-commerce industry is fast-evolving, with mounting demands for personalised marketing strategy, multi-channel operation capabilities and technology solutions. These demanding requirements force a significant proportion of beauty brands to engage service providers who offer a suite of services in the e-commerce value chain.<div class="content-highlight">eBeauty is capitalising on these industry dynamics by delivering solid organic growth, rising margins and good cash generation. Overall, we believe that eBeauty is worth a closer look.</div>

EBeauty Holdings (1894926D HK) is the largest beauty brand e-commerce enablement service provider by GMV (gross merchandise value) facilitated or generated in China, with a market share of 13.3% in 2020, according to iResearch. eBeauty primarily executes the branding and marketing strategies that the brand partners have designed, operating their official online stores, while in some cases it provides marketing strategy advisory to brand partners to help them formulate their marketing strategies.eBeauty is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $600 million, according to press reports. The shareholders include Genesis Capital, Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Bilibili Inc (BILI US) and Mass Ave Global.eBeauty is a play on the rising complexity of China’s beauty e-commerce industry which has resulted in more brands out-sourcing their e-commerce operations to specialized brand e-commerce enablement service providers (such as eBeauty). The beauty e-commerce industry is fast-evolving, with mounting demands for personalised marketing strategy, multi-channel operation capabilities and technology solutions. These demanding requirements force a significant proportion of beauty brands to engage service providers who offer a suite of services in the e-commerce value chain.eBeauty is capitalising on these industry dynamics by delivering solid organic growth, rising margins and good cash generation. Overall, we believe that eBeauty is worth a closer look.

EBeauty Holdings IPO Initiation: Attention Pays

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicai (DDL US)</a>, an on-demand fresh produce and grocery delivery platform in China with RMB 11.3bn in annual revenue and 6.9m in monthly active customers, raised about $96.0m in its US IPO on Tuesday after slashing the size of the IPO <a target="_blank">to almost a fourth of its earlier target.</a> The shares were priced at $23.50 per ADS, at the lower end of the proposed IPO price range. If exercised, the overallotment option could increase the gross proceeds to the company by another $14.0m.

Dingdong Maicai (DDL US), an on-demand fresh produce and grocery delivery platform in China with RMB 11.3bn in annual revenue and 6.9m in monthly active customers, raised about $96.0m in its US IPO on Tuesday after slashing the size of the IPO to almost a fourth of its earlier target. The shares were priced at $23.50 per ADS, at the lower end of the proposed IPO price range. If exercised, the overallotment option could increase the gross proceeds to the company by another $14.0m.

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest sales data from the 6.18 (running from June 1st to June 18th) Festival by Syntun suggests potential revenue upside for online shopping platforms but particularly more for the larger market shareholders, Alibaba and JD, and Vipshop as apparel and shoes categories showed the highest sales growth.    I am positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> as they provide an attractive balance of growth and value.  I have recently turned more bullish on Vipshop because of its cheap value and the continued improving operating metrics.  I remain cautious on PDD US because of the risk associated with the company’s profit model. Three takeaways from my analysis of the 6.18.21 sales data (some 2020 data):<ol>
<li>Alibaba remains the king of promotions.  The company maintained its top-selling platform position.  Alibaba is particularly strong in personal and beauty care and snack foods.   </li>
<li>Apparel and shoes were the top two growth categories during the 6.18 Festival.  This bodes well for Vipshop and Alibaba. </li>
<li>JD maintains its strong position in appliances and electronics as well as dairy products (based on 2020 detail data for select categories).  JD also leads in New Retail – grocery delivery and supermarkets. </li>
<li>PDD appears to be a distant third on 6.18 sales (based on 2020 detail data breakdown – 2021 is unavailable).         </li>
</ol>

The latest sales data from the 6.18 (running from June 1st to June 18th) Festival by Syntun suggests potential revenue upside for online shopping platforms but particularly more for the larger market shareholders, Alibaba and JD, and Vipshop as apparel and shoes categories showed the highest sales growth.    I am positive on Alibaba Group (BABA US), JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), and Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) as they provide an attractive balance of growth and value.  I have recently turned more bullish on Vipshop because of its cheap value and the continued improving operating metrics.  I remain cautious on PDD US because of the risk associated with the company’s profit model. Three takeaways from my analysis of the 6.18.21 sales data (some 2020 data):
Alibaba remains the king of promotions.  The company maintained its top-selling platform position.  Alibaba is particularly strong in personal and beauty care and snack foods.   
Apparel and shoes were the top two growth categories during the 6.18 Festival.  This bodes well for Vipshop and Alibaba. 
JD maintains its strong position in appliances and electronics as well as dairy products (based on 2020 detail data for select categories).  JD also leads in New Retail – grocery delivery and supermarkets. 
PDD appears to be a distant third on 6.18 sales (based on 2020 detail data breakdown – 2021 is unavailable).         


China E-Commerce: 6.18 Festival Getting Bigger - Good for Alibaba, JD, Vipshop

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> fell more than 50% from the peak in March 2021 despite the company delivering on rejuvenated revenue growth and margin improvements.  I have been cautious on the stock as I believed the market was overpaying for the company's restructuring success.  However, with the share price down sharply, I now believe risk-return is favorable and the stock offers attractive value.  I flagged my upgraded positive view in my last Vipshop report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-online-retail-sales-tracker-april-and-may-sales-growth-slows-on-unfavorable-comps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53557" rel="noopener">China Online Retail Sales Tracker: April and May Sales Growth Slows on Unfavorable Comps</a>, dated 24 June 2021. Three reasons why investors should revisit the stock: <ul>
<li>The stock is trading at the lowest forward P/E band (except for the single-digit revenue growth year 2018).   </li>
<li>The company is structured to deliver a growth similar to the pre-2018 period and better margins, yet it is valued as if the company is entering the low growth stage. </li>
<li>Evidence of new customer conversion to repeat buyers will lead to a longer customer life cycle and longer sustainability of double-digit revenue growth.  With top-line growth acceleration, I estimate Vipshop to deliver on historic high profits. Consensus estimates operating profit growth of 29% YoY in 2021.    </li>
</ul>

Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) fell more than 50% from the peak in March 2021 despite the company delivering on rejuvenated revenue growth and margin improvements.  I have been cautious on the stock as I believed the market was overpaying for the company's restructuring success.  However, with the share price down sharply, I now believe risk-return is favorable and the stock offers attractive value.  I flagged my upgraded positive view in my last Vipshop report, China Online Retail Sales Tracker: April and May Sales Growth Slows on Unfavorable Comps, dated 24 June 2021. Three reasons why investors should revisit the stock: 
The stock is trading at the lowest forward P/E band (except for the single-digit revenue growth year 2018).   
The company is structured to deliver a growth similar to the pre-2018 period and better margins, yet it is valued as if the company is entering the low growth stage. 
Evidence of new customer conversion to repeat buyers will lead to a longer customer life cycle and longer sustainability of double-digit revenue growth.  With top-line growth acceleration, I estimate Vipshop to deliver on historic high profits. Consensus estimates operating profit growth of 29% YoY in 2021.    


Vipshop (VIPS US): Tantalizing Value for China's Discount Brand Retailer

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

EBeauty Holdings IPO Initiation: Attention Pays

eBeauty is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $600 m. eBeauty is capitalising on favourable industry dynamics by delivering solid organic...

Arun George

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

Dingdong Maicai IPO Trading Update

It is somewhat strange that Dingdong Maicai’s share price closed marginally above IPO price, especially considering that the company downsized the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China E-Commerce: 6.18 Festival Getting Bigger - Good for Alibaba, JD, Vipshop

The latest data from the 6.18 Festival suggests potential revenue upside for online shopping platforms. Find out who is strong by category and why...

Mitchell Kim

Vipshop (VIPS US): Tantalizing Value for China's Discount Brand Retailer

Vipshop is down 50% from the peak in March 2021 despite the rejuvenated revenue growth and margin improvements. As I flagged my upgraded positive...

Mitchell Kim

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