Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.</li><li>Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.</li><li>The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.</li></ul>

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.

Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.</li><li>The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.</li><li>H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.</li></ul>

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is a little softer overall on the session so far but there is little to suggest FX markets are doing anything different from the trading patterns seen so far this week—idling ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data.</li><li>The ZAR and AUD lead intraday gains on the USD, closely followed by the NOK—suggesting a pro-risk bias in markets.</li><li>But European stocks are only marginally higher on the session while US futures are narrowly mixed. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is a little softer overall on the session so far but there is little to suggest FX markets are doing anything different from the trading patterns seen so far this week—idling ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data.The ZAR and AUD lead intraday gains on the USD, closely followed by the NOK—suggesting a pro-risk bias in markets.But European stocks are only marginally higher on the session while US futures are narrowly mixed. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>Even if the year is still young, 2024 has started with a pushback against lower rates.</li>
<li>Arguments to wait for better levels to enter outright receivers battle with the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the next big rally. Three trades to start the year.</li>
<li>In our views on EUR swaps in 2024, we wrote that rates could see a pushback in Q1 before resuming the downtrend for the remainder of the year.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Even if the year is still young, 2024 has started with a pushback against lower rates.
Arguments to wait for better levels to enter outright receivers battle with the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the next big rally. Three trades to start the year.
In our views on EUR swaps in 2024, we wrote that rates could see a pushback in Q1 before resuming the downtrend for the remainder of the year.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.</li>
<li>In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.</li>
<li>These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.</li>
</ul>


Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.
In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.
These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.


EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us. Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations,...

Steno Research

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Idles Ahead of CPI

he USD is a little softer overall on the session so far but there is little to suggest FX markets are doing anything different from the trading...

Scotiabank

EUR Rates: FOMO

Arguments to wait for better levels to enter outright receivers battle with the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the next big rally. Three trades to...

Nordea

EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles. In the...

Steno Research

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