External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Risk aversion is the primary characteristic of the markets this morning.</li><li>Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.</li><li>Crude oil prices have picked up a little while major bond markets are mixed; US Treasury yields have eased 4- 5bps from yesterday’s close.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Risk aversion is the primary characteristic of the markets this morning.Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.Crude oil prices have picked up a little while major bond markets are mixed; US Treasury yields have eased 4- 5bps from yesterday’s close.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed Despite Weak Risk Appetite

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.</li><li>In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.</li><li>This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.</li></ul>

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

<ul><li>The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.</li><li>The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.</li><li>The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>After the ECB signalled at the September meeting that rates have likely peaked, while recent inflation data have actually surprised to the downside, the decision to leave rates unchanged at the 26 October meeting looks straightforward.</li><li>While several Governing Council members have kept the door open for an additional hike, the next probable timing for debating the need to hike rates further will be the December meeting, with updated forecasts, not next week’s meeting.</li><li>The recent increase in longer yields should further limit the pressure for the ECB to do more.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

After the ECB signalled at the September meeting that rates have likely peaked, while recent inflation data have actually surprised to the downside, the decision to leave rates unchanged at the 26 October meeting looks straightforward.While several Governing Council members have kept the door open for an additional hike, the next probable timing for debating the need to hike rates further will be the December meeting, with updated forecasts, not next week’s meeting.The recent increase in longer yields should further limit the pressure for the ECB to do more.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: Limited need for new decisions

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Mixed Despite Weak Risk Appetite

Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese...

Scotiabank

ECB Watch: Limited need for new decisions

The focus will likely be on what to do about the Eurosystem bond portfolio and reserve requirements, while rates will be debated again in December.

Nordea

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