Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.</li><li>The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC.</li><li>So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?</li></ul>

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC.So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

<ul>
<li>Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.</li>
<li>This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass</li>
</ul>


Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

<ul><li>We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.</li><li>The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.</li><li>We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.</li></ul>

We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.

Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The standings at the Euros almost perfectly mirror the current cross-regional uncertainties in equity markets. </span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The European election has increased the option-implied volatility premium of European equities compared to US equities, while the FTSE 100 continues to stay “less volatile” in IV terms. </span></li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen.The standings at the Euros almost perfectly mirror the current cross-regional uncertainties in equity markets. The European election has increased the option-implied volatility premium of European equities compared to US equities, while the FTSE 100 continues to stay “less volatile” in IV terms. 

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest...

Steno Research

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.

We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen. Denmark advanced as the second team in their Euros...

Steno Research

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