Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.</li>
<li>Divisions exist between the Euro bottoming and risk FX (AUD and ZAR) with latent USD bull support. Q2 equity risk off a key driver for risk FX.</li>
<li>US 10yr close to our 1.95% PT, above would see an unsustainable push above 2% that would align with a USD topping process.</li>
</ul>


DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.
Divisions exist between the Euro bottoming and risk FX (AUD and ZAR) with latent USD bull support. Q2 equity risk off a key driver for risk FX.
US 10yr close to our 1.95% PT, above would see an unsustainable push above 2% that would align with a USD topping process.


<ul>
<li>DXY long at 94.50 targets of 97.50/98 is on track but the impulsive nature of the rise does increase odds of an overshoot if the 10yr yield clear 1.95%.</li>
<li>Bias/Focus: Euro breakdown targeting 1.10 turn support. AUD and NZD plunge. USD bid in EM gearing up.</li>
<li>Conviction: Stick with AUD and NZD shorts, Buy USD on dips in EM and parts of Asia (SGD potential triple low, THB bull wedge and INR flirting with 75).</li>
</ul>


DXY long at 94.50 targets of 97.50/98 is on track but the impulsive nature of the rise does increase odds of an overshoot if the 10yr yield clear 1.95%.
Bias/Focus: Euro breakdown targeting 1.10 turn support. AUD and NZD plunge. USD bid in EM gearing up.
Conviction: Stick with AUD and NZD shorts, Buy USD on dips in EM and parts of Asia (SGD potential triple low, THB bull wedge and INR flirting with 75).


Dollar Momentum/Risk Pressure - Greenback Top Will Front Run a Yield Peak

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The US dollar has started appreciating again on the back of a safe-haven bid with risk aversion rising due to the Fed's upcoming rate-hiking cycle and the Russia-Ukraine tensions.</li>
<li>Given my expectation of rising dollar volatility, I had recommended hedging a diversified EMFX portfolio with the euro. Indeed, the euro hedge has worked well over the past three months.</li>
<li>I continue to prescribe maintaining the euro hedge. If the dollar remains volatile, I don't expect the low volatility of EM currencies – dragged lower by Asia – to persist. </li>
</ul>


The US dollar has started appreciating again on the back of a safe-haven bid with risk aversion rising due to the Fed's upcoming rate-hiking cycle and the Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Given my expectation of rising dollar volatility, I had recommended hedging a diversified EMFX portfolio with the euro. Indeed, the euro hedge has worked well over the past three months.
I continue to prescribe maintaining the euro hedge. If the dollar remains volatile, I don't expect the low volatility of EM currencies – dragged lower by Asia – to persist. 


Value of Euro as a Hedge for EM Currencies in Times Like These

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

Dollar Top Leading a Yield Peak

DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.

Thomas Schroeder

Dollar Momentum/Risk Pressure - Greenback Top Will Front Run a Yield Peak

DXY 94.50 LONG targets of 97.50/98. the impulsive nature of the rise increases overshoot odds when the 10yr yield clears 1.95%. High conviction...

Thomas Schroeder

Value of Euro as a Hedge for EM Currencies in Times Like These

Given my expectation that the dollar should remain volatile in the near term, I continue to recommend maintaining a euro hedge for a diversified...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 21 of the 31 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)