Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>It’s a rather tentative start to the week for markets overall. After fresh highs for the S&amp;P 500 last week, European stocks are advancing modestly (Japan and China were closed today) while bonds are mostly firmer; US 10Y yields are down 1- 2bps while European debt has shed 4-6bps across the major markets.</li><li>The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.</li><li>The NZD is at the foot of the intraday performance table, giving up some of the gains made late last week on speculation that the RBNZ would tighten rates a bit more in the coming weeks. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

It’s a rather tentative start to the week for markets overall. After fresh highs for the S&amp;P 500 last week, European stocks are advancing modestly (Japan and China were closed today) while bonds are mostly firmer; US 10Y yields are down 1- 2bps while European debt has shed 4-6bps across the major markets.The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.The NZD is at the foot of the intraday performance table, giving up some of the gains made late last week on speculation that the RBNZ would tighten rates a bit more in the coming weeks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - Flat USD Looks to CPI for Direction

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update!Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with S&amp;P 500 passing the historic 5000 USD level, despite most economic data prints surprising to the upside, almost forcing risk-asset investors to believe that the economy has survived higher interest rates for good.</li>
<li>Although rates traders have made what looks like a u-turn in the # of cuts priced in for 2024, the promise from central bankers that policy rates will come down has been anchored in expectations, and the cocktail of slightly better than expected economic data and the perception that central bankers will cut interest rates (albeit slightly slower) anyway produces a perfect environment for risk assets to perform and drift higher.</li>
<li>With USD liquidity looking to continue its upward trajectory, equities are still a buy given the current narrative – momentum is king.</li>
</ul>


Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update!Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with S&amp;P 500 passing the historic 5000 USD level, despite most economic data prints surprising to the upside, almost forcing risk-asset investors to believe that the economy has survived higher interest rates for good.
Although rates traders have made what looks like a u-turn in the # of cuts priced in for 2024, the promise from central bankers that policy rates will come down has been anchored in expectations, and the cocktail of slightly better than expected economic data and the perception that central bankers will cut interest rates (albeit slightly slower) anyway produces a perfect environment for risk assets to perform and drift higher.
With USD liquidity looking to continue its upward trajectory, equities are still a buy given the current narrative – momentum is king.


Positioning Watch – Has the Sudden Change in Rates Pricing Changed Positioning?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The crude market is rife with subtle tit-for-tat politics, and there’s little to indicate this dynamic will change.</li>
<li>We delve into the current state of the oil market and share our thoughts on our current position at this stage. First we broke USD 80, then Al Jazeera reported a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, which was retracted 15 min later.</li>
<li>The market didn’t care and pounded the sell-bottom all the way back below 78 even with (on the paper) strong jobs and PMI prints out of the US coming out in the meantime.</li>
</ul>


The crude market is rife with subtle tit-for-tat politics, and there’s little to indicate this dynamic will change.
We delve into the current state of the oil market and share our thoughts on our current position at this stage. First we broke USD 80, then Al Jazeera reported a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, which was retracted 15 min later.
The market didn’t care and pounded the sell-bottom all the way back below 78 even with (on the paper) strong jobs and PMI prints out of the US coming out in the meantime.


Energy Cable: The Rollercoaster in Crude Oil Continues

<ul><li>I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.</li><li>In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.</li><li>Is it really that important?</li></ul>

I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.Is it really that important?

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

FX Daily - Flat USD Looks to CPI for Direction

The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Has the Sudden Change in Rates Pricing Changed Positioning?

Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update! Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: The Rollercoaster in Crude Oil Continues

The crude market is rife with subtle tit-for-tat politics, and there’s little to indicate this dynamic will change. We delve into the current state...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Welcome to our flagship editorial! I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to...

Steno Research

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