Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the year</li><li>Labor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertainty</li><li>Options markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trend</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the yearLabor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertaintyOptions markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trendThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD retains a soft undertone overall but trade is on the quiet side to start the week and tomorrow’s US CPI report—and no data of note today— will probably keep trading subdued today.</li><li>The JPY remains firm, gaining another 0.25% on the session, as markets position for a potential tightening in BoJ policy as soon as next week’s BoJ meeting.</li><li>The broader USD slide over the past week may have stabilized in the short run, however, with Friday’s price action suggesting some consolidation in the weak tone after an extended run lower from the middle of last month.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD retains a soft undertone overall but trade is on the quiet side to start the week and tomorrow’s US CPI report—and no data of note today— will probably keep trading subdued today.The JPY remains firm, gaining another 0.25% on the session, as markets position for a potential tightening in BoJ policy as soon as next week’s BoJ meeting.The broader USD slide over the past week may have stabilized in the short run, however, with Friday’s price action suggesting some consolidation in the weak tone after an extended run lower from the middle of last month.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - Soft USD Awaits CPI for Next Directional Cue

<ul><li>The USD is trading lower for a fourth day (so far) in succession, something we haven’t seen in terms of the USD’s broad performance since the end of last year.</li><li>The defensive tone in the USD reflects caution ahead of today’s comments from Fed chairman Powell who will deliver his semi-annual update on the economic and policy outlook to US lawmakers.</li><li>The chairman may not shed too much light on policy prospects, other than the stick with recent messaging from top FOMC officials that progress is being made on inflation but there is still more work to do—keeping rate cut risks at arm’s length for now. Cautious trading on the USD suggests market participants are concerned the chairman may be a little more forthcoming on rate cut prospects though. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading lower for a fourth day (so far) in succession, something we haven’t seen in terms of the USD’s broad performance since the end of last year.The defensive tone in the USD reflects caution ahead of today’s comments from Fed chairman Powell who will deliver his semi-annual update on the economic and policy outlook to US lawmakers.The chairman may not shed too much light on policy prospects, other than the stick with recent messaging from top FOMC officials that progress is being made on inflation but there is still more work to do—keeping rate cut risks at arm’s length for now. Cautious trading on the USD suggests market participants are concerned the chairman may be a little more forthcoming on rate cut prospects though. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Slips Before Powell Comments

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Last week's key events included Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony and the non farm payrolls report, with a focus on the need for more data...

At Any Rate

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

FX Daily - Soft USD Awaits CPI for Next Directional Cue

The USD retains a soft undertone overall but trade is on the quiet side to start the week and tomorrow’s US CPI report—and no data of note today—...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slips Before Powell Comments

The USD is trading lower for a fourth day (so far) in succession, something we haven’t seen in terms of the USD’s broad performance since the end...

Scotiabank

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)