Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.</li><li>For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.</li><li>Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.</li></ul>

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Global markets experienced a wobble following a stronger than expected US CPI inflation report, causing a spike in bond yields and a dip in equity markets.</li><li>The US CPI report breaks the trend of positive data and has implications for the Fed's rate cut decisions. While inflation is expected to moderate this year, it will take several data points to confirm this.</li><li>The upcoming minutes from the January FOMC meeting will provide more details on the Fed's thinking regarding rate cuts and adjustments to the pace of balance sheet rundown.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Global markets experienced a wobble following a stronger than expected US CPI inflation report, causing a spike in bond yields and a dip in equity markets.The US CPI report breaks the trend of positive data and has implications for the Fed's rate cut decisions. While inflation is expected to moderate this year, it will take several data points to confirm this.The upcoming minutes from the January FOMC meeting will provide more details on the Fed's thinking regarding rate cuts and adjustments to the pace of balance sheet rundown.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead - Fed Meeting Minutes, Central Bank Meetings in Indonesia and Korea

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update!Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with S&amp;P 500 passing the historic 5000 USD level, despite most economic data prints surprising to the upside, almost forcing risk-asset investors to believe that the economy has survived higher interest rates for good.</li>
<li>Although rates traders have made what looks like a u-turn in the # of cuts priced in for 2024, the promise from central bankers that policy rates will come down has been anchored in expectations, and the cocktail of slightly better than expected economic data and the perception that central bankers will cut interest rates (albeit slightly slower) anyway produces a perfect environment for risk assets to perform and drift higher.</li>
<li>With USD liquidity looking to continue its upward trajectory, equities are still a buy given the current narrative – momentum is king.</li>
</ul>


Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update!Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with S&amp;P 500 passing the historic 5000 USD level, despite most economic data prints surprising to the upside, almost forcing risk-asset investors to believe that the economy has survived higher interest rates for good.
Although rates traders have made what looks like a u-turn in the # of cuts priced in for 2024, the promise from central bankers that policy rates will come down has been anchored in expectations, and the cocktail of slightly better than expected economic data and the perception that central bankers will cut interest rates (albeit slightly slower) anyway produces a perfect environment for risk assets to perform and drift higher.
With USD liquidity looking to continue its upward trajectory, equities are still a buy given the current narrative – momentum is king.


Positioning Watch – Has the Sudden Change in Rates Pricing Changed Positioning?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.

Untying The Gordian Knot

The Week Ahead - Fed Meeting Minutes, Central Bank Meetings in Indonesia and Korea

The stronger than expected US CPI inflation report caused turbulence in global markets, leading to a spike in bond yields, a dip in equity markets,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Has the Sudden Change in Rates Pricing Changed Positioning?

Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update! Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

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P/E

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