Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Russell 2000 Index

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout